Source Physical (UK) Market Value

SPAL Stock   157.46  4.06  2.65%   
Source Physical's market value is the price at which a share of Source Physical trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Source Physical Palladium investors about its performance. Source Physical is selling for under 157.46 as of the 31st of December 2025; that is 2.65% increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 154.99.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Source Physical Palladium and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Source Physical over a given investment horizon. Check out Source Physical Correlation, Source Physical Volatility and Source Physical Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Source Physical.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Source Physical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Source Physical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Source Physical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Source Physical 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Source Physical's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Source Physical.
0.00
01/05/2025
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 11 months and 26 days
12/31/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Source Physical on January 5, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Source Physical Palladium or generate 0.0% return on investment in Source Physical over 360 days. Source Physical is related to or competes with DB Physical, IShares Physical, Scottish Mortgage, Invesco Physical, and Templeton Emerging. Source Physical is entity of United Kingdom More

Source Physical Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Source Physical's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Source Physical Palladium upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Source Physical Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Source Physical's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Source Physical's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Source Physical historical prices to predict the future Source Physical's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
153.04156.03159.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
143.45146.44173.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
167.08170.07173.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
132.90156.12179.34
Details

Source Physical Palladium Backtested Returns

Source Physical appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Source Physical Palladium owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.17, which indicates the firm had a 0.17 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Source Physical's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.52% is justified by implied risk. Please review Source Physical's Semi Deviation of 3.07, coefficient of variation of 682.09, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1107 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Source Physical holds a performance score of 13. The entity has a beta of 0.61, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Source Physical's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Source Physical is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Source Physical's value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Source Physical's existing price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.61  

Good predictability

Source Physical Palladium has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Source Physical time series from 5th of January 2025 to 4th of July 2025 and 4th of July 2025 to 31st of December 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Source Physical Palladium price movement. The serial correlation of 0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Source Physical price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.61
Spearman Rank Test0.43
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance281.54

Source Physical Palladium lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Source Physical stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Source Physical's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Source Physical returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Source Physical has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Source Physical regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Source Physical stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Source Physical stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Source Physical stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Source Physical Lagged Returns

When evaluating Source Physical's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Source Physical stock have on its future price. Source Physical autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Source Physical autocorrelation shows the relationship between Source Physical stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Source Physical Palladium.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Additional Tools for Source Stock Analysis

When running Source Physical's price analysis, check to measure Source Physical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Source Physical is operating at the current time. Most of Source Physical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Source Physical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Source Physical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Source Physical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.