Transcoal Pacific (Indonesia) Market Value
| TCPI Stock | 7,275 125.00 1.75% |
| Symbol | Transcoal |
Transcoal Pacific 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Transcoal Pacific's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Transcoal Pacific.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Transcoal Pacific on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Transcoal Pacific Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Transcoal Pacific over 30 days. Transcoal Pacific is related to or competes with Rukun Raharja, and Weha Transportasi. More
Transcoal Pacific Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Transcoal Pacific's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Transcoal Pacific Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.73) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.74 |
Transcoal Pacific Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Transcoal Pacific's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Transcoal Pacific's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Transcoal Pacific historical prices to predict the future Transcoal Pacific's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.016 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1105 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
Transcoal Pacific Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, Transcoal Stock is very steady. Transcoal Pacific Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0181, which indicates the firm had a 0.0181% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Transcoal Pacific Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Transcoal Pacific's Semi Deviation of 1.55, coefficient of variation of 6901.68, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.016 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0278%. Transcoal Pacific has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.83, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Transcoal Pacific are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Transcoal Pacific is likely to outperform the market. Transcoal Pacific Tbk right now has a risk of 1.54%. Please validate Transcoal Pacific semi deviation, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and information ratio , to decide if Transcoal Pacific will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.19 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Transcoal Pacific Tbk has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Transcoal Pacific time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Transcoal Pacific Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Transcoal Pacific price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.3 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4121.9 |
Transcoal Pacific Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Transcoal Pacific stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Transcoal Pacific's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Transcoal Pacific returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Transcoal Pacific has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Transcoal Pacific regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Transcoal Pacific stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Transcoal Pacific stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Transcoal Pacific stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Transcoal Pacific Lagged Returns
When evaluating Transcoal Pacific's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Transcoal Pacific stock have on its future price. Transcoal Pacific autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Transcoal Pacific autocorrelation shows the relationship between Transcoal Pacific stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Transcoal Pacific Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Transcoal Pacific financial ratios help investors to determine whether Transcoal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Transcoal with respect to the benefits of owning Transcoal Pacific security.