True Games (Poland) Market Value
| TGS Stock | 0.48 0.01 2.13% |
| Symbol | True |
True Games 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to True Games' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of True Games.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in True Games on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding True Games Syndicate or generate 0.0% return on investment in True Games over 30 days. True Games is related to or competes with Clean Carbon, ADX, Agroliga Group, and Vee SA. More
True Games Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure True Games' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess True Games Syndicate upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.33 |
True Games Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for True Games' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as True Games' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use True Games historical prices to predict the future True Games' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.47) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.15) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of True Games' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
True Games Syndicate Backtested Returns
True Games Syndicate owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.18, which indicates the firm had a -0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. True Games Syndicate exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate True Games' Coefficient Of Variation of (2,020), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Variance of 24.99 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 1.72, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, True Games will likely underperform. At this point, True Games Syndicate has a negative expected return of -0.61%. Please make sure to validate True Games' value at risk, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the Daily Balance Of Power and price action indicator , to decide if True Games Syndicate performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.1 |
Very weak reverse predictability
True Games Syndicate has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between True Games time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of True Games Syndicate price movement. The serial correlation of -0.1 indicates that less than 10.0% of current True Games price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.1 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
True Games Syndicate lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is True Games stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting True Games' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of True Games returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that True Games has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
True Games regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If True Games stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if True Games stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in True Games stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
True Games Lagged Returns
When evaluating True Games' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of True Games stock have on its future price. True Games autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, True Games autocorrelation shows the relationship between True Games stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in True Games Syndicate.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with True Games
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if True Games position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in True Games will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with True Stock
Moving against True Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to True Games could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace True Games when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back True Games - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling True Games Syndicate to buy it.
The correlation of True Games is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as True Games moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if True Games Syndicate moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for True Games can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for True Stock Analysis
When running True Games' price analysis, check to measure True Games' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy True Games is operating at the current time. Most of True Games' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of True Games' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move True Games' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of True Games to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.