Thornburg Core Plus Fund Market Value
| THCAX Fund | 10.50 0.05 0.48% |
| Symbol | Thornburg |
Thornburg Core 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thornburg Core's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thornburg Core.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Thornburg Core on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Thornburg Core Plus or generate 0.0% return on investment in Thornburg Core over 180 days.
Thornburg Core Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thornburg Core's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thornburg Core Plus upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.44) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.44 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4785 |
Thornburg Core Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thornburg Core's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thornburg Core's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thornburg Core historical prices to predict the future Thornburg Core's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2658 |
Thornburg Core Plus Backtested Returns
Thornburg Core Plus owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0434, which indicates the fund had a -0.0434% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Thornburg Core Plus exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Thornburg Core's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03), variance of 0.1078, and Coefficient Of Variation of (4,926) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.0627, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Thornburg Core are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Thornburg Core is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.81 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Thornburg Core Plus has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thornburg Core time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thornburg Core Plus price movement. The serial correlation of -0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Thornburg Core price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Thornburg Core Plus lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thornburg Core mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thornburg Core's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thornburg Core returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thornburg Core has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Core regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thornburg Core mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thornburg Core mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thornburg Core mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Thornburg Core Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thornburg Core's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thornburg Core mutual fund have on its future price. Thornburg Core autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thornburg Core autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thornburg Core mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thornburg Core Plus.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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