Pabrik Kertas (Indonesia) Market Value
| TKIM Stock | IDR 6,300 75.00 1.20% |
| Symbol | Pabrik |
Pabrik Kertas 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Pabrik Kertas' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Pabrik Kertas.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Pabrik Kertas on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Pabrik Kertas over 30 days. Pabrik Kertas is related to or competes with Indah Kiat, Indocement Tunggal, Barito Pacific, Charoen Pokphand, and Japfa Comfeed. More
Pabrik Kertas Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Pabrik Kertas' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.77 |
Pabrik Kertas Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Pabrik Kertas' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Pabrik Kertas' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Pabrik Kertas historical prices to predict the future Pabrik Kertas' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.54) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.46 |
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Backtested Returns
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.12, which implies the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Pabrik Kertas' Coefficient Of Variation of (794.77), variance of 3.46, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of -0.0991, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Pabrik Kertas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Pabrik Kertas is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi has a negative expected return of -0.23%. Please make sure to check Pabrik Kertas' coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Pabrik Kertas time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current Pabrik Kertas price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2892.56 |
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Pabrik Kertas stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Pabrik Kertas' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Pabrik Kertas returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Pabrik Kertas has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Pabrik Kertas regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Pabrik Kertas stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Pabrik Kertas stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Pabrik Kertas stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Pabrik Kertas Lagged Returns
When evaluating Pabrik Kertas' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Pabrik Kertas stock have on its future price. Pabrik Kertas autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Pabrik Kertas autocorrelation shows the relationship between Pabrik Kertas stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Pabrik Kertas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pabrik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pabrik with respect to the benefits of owning Pabrik Kertas security.