TBS Energi (Indonesia) Market Value
| TOBA Stock | IDR 462.00 6.00 1.28% |
| Symbol | TBS |
TBS Energi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TBS Energi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TBS Energi.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TBS Energi on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TBS Energi Utama or generate 0.0% return on investment in TBS Energi over 30 days. TBS Energi is related to or competes with Golden Eagle, Baramulti Suksessarana, Samindo Resources, Resource Alam, and Harum Energy. More
TBS Energi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TBS Energi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TBS Energi Utama upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.056 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 31.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 12.61 |
TBS Energi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TBS Energi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TBS Energi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TBS Energi historical prices to predict the future TBS Energi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0694 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4923 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.44) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0751 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.84) |
TBS Energi Utama Backtested Returns
TBS Energi appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. TBS Energi Utama owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.037, which indicates the company had a 0.037% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for TBS Energi Utama, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please review TBS Energi's Downside Deviation of 4.13, market risk adjusted performance of (0.83), and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0694 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, TBS Energi holds a performance score of 2. The firm has a beta of -0.51, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning TBS Energi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, TBS Energi is likely to outperform the market. Please check TBS Energi's value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether TBS Energi's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
TBS Energi Utama has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TBS Energi time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TBS Energi Utama price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current TBS Energi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 969.9 |
TBS Energi Utama lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TBS Energi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TBS Energi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TBS Energi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TBS Energi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TBS Energi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TBS Energi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TBS Energi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TBS Energi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TBS Energi Lagged Returns
When evaluating TBS Energi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TBS Energi stock have on its future price. TBS Energi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TBS Energi autocorrelation shows the relationship between TBS Energi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TBS Energi Utama.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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TBS Energi financial ratios help investors to determine whether TBS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TBS with respect to the benefits of owning TBS Energi security.