TOL GASES (Tanzania) Market Value
| TOL Stock | 670.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | TOL |
TOL GASES 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TOL GASES's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TOL GASES.
| 12/04/2024 |
| 02/02/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TOL GASES on December 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TOL GASES LTD or generate 0.0% return on investment in TOL GASES over 60 days.
TOL GASES Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TOL GASES's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TOL GASES LTD upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.06 |
TOL GASES Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TOL GASES's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TOL GASES's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TOL GASES historical prices to predict the future TOL GASES's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0588 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.037 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.62 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TOL GASES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TOL GASES LTD Backtested Returns
At this point, TOL GASES is very steady. TOL GASES LTD owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of close to zero, which indicates the firm had a close to zero % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found sixteen technical indicators for TOL GASES LTD, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate TOL GASES's variance of 0.4261, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0588 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0015%. The entity has a beta of 0.0145, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, TOL GASES's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TOL GASES is expected to be smaller as well. TOL GASES LTD currently has a risk of 0.55%. Please validate TOL GASES maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and day median price , to decide if TOL GASES will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.00 |
No correlation between past and present
TOL GASES LTD has no correlation between past and present. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TOL GASES time series from 4th of December 2024 to 3rd of January 2025 and 3rd of January 2025 to 2nd of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TOL GASES LTD price movement. The serial correlation of 0.0 indicates that just 0.0% of current TOL GASES price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.0 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.96 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
TOL GASES LTD lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TOL GASES stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TOL GASES's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TOL GASES returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TOL GASES has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TOL GASES regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TOL GASES stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TOL GASES stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TOL GASES stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TOL GASES Lagged Returns
When evaluating TOL GASES's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TOL GASES stock have on its future price. TOL GASES autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TOL GASES autocorrelation shows the relationship between TOL GASES stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TOL GASES LTD.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |