TRACTOR SUPPLY (Germany) Market Value
| TR4 Stock | 53.09 1.62 3.15% |
| Symbol | TRACTOR |
TRACTOR SUPPLY 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TRACTOR SUPPLY's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TRACTOR SUPPLY.
| 09/29/2024 |
| 12/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TRACTOR SUPPLY on September 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TRACTOR SUPPLY or generate 0.0% return on investment in TRACTOR SUPPLY over 90 days. TRACTOR SUPPLY is related to or competes with Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, and Microsoft. More
TRACTOR SUPPLY Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TRACTOR SUPPLY's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TRACTOR SUPPLY upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0706 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.67 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.79 |
TRACTOR SUPPLY Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TRACTOR SUPPLY's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TRACTOR SUPPLY's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TRACTOR SUPPLY historical prices to predict the future TRACTOR SUPPLY's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.076 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1474 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.073 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.06 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TRACTOR SUPPLY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TRACTOR SUPPLY Backtested Returns
Currently, TRACTOR SUPPLY is very steady. TRACTOR SUPPLY retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.047, which indicates the firm had a 0.047% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for TRACTOR SUPPLY, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate TRACTOR SUPPLY's risk adjusted performance of 0.076, and Downside Deviation of 1.76 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.087%. TRACTOR SUPPLY has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.14, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, TRACTOR SUPPLY's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TRACTOR SUPPLY is expected to be smaller as well. TRACTOR SUPPLY currently owns a risk of 1.85%. Please validate TRACTOR SUPPLY coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to decide if TRACTOR SUPPLY will be following its current price history.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
TRACTOR SUPPLY has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TRACTOR SUPPLY time series from 29th of September 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TRACTOR SUPPLY price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current TRACTOR SUPPLY price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.74 |
TRACTOR SUPPLY lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TRACTOR SUPPLY stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TRACTOR SUPPLY's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TRACTOR SUPPLY returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TRACTOR SUPPLY has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TRACTOR SUPPLY regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TRACTOR SUPPLY stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TRACTOR SUPPLY stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TRACTOR SUPPLY stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TRACTOR SUPPLY Lagged Returns
When evaluating TRACTOR SUPPLY's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TRACTOR SUPPLY stock have on its future price. TRACTOR SUPPLY autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TRACTOR SUPPLY autocorrelation shows the relationship between TRACTOR SUPPLY stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TRACTOR SUPPLY.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for TRACTOR Stock Analysis
When running TRACTOR SUPPLY's price analysis, check to measure TRACTOR SUPPLY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TRACTOR SUPPLY is operating at the current time. Most of TRACTOR SUPPLY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TRACTOR SUPPLY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TRACTOR SUPPLY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TRACTOR SUPPLY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.