Van Dien (Vietnam) Market Value
| VAF Stock | 13,500 450.00 3.45% |
| Symbol | Van |
Van Dien 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Van Dien's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Van Dien.
| 12/08/2024 |
| 01/07/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Van Dien on December 8, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Van Dien Fused or generate 0.0% return on investment in Van Dien over 30 days.
Van Dien Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Van Dien's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Van Dien Fused upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.74 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0281 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.79) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.86 |
Van Dien Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Van Dien's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Van Dien's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Van Dien historical prices to predict the future Van Dien's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0351 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1335 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0685 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0258 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.47 |
Van Dien Fused Backtested Returns
Van Dien Fused owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0066, which indicates the firm had a -0.0066% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Van Dien Fused exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Van Dien's Semi Deviation of 3.95, coefficient of variation of 3007.89, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0351 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0919, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Van Dien's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Van Dien is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Van Dien Fused has a negative expected return of -0.033%. Please make sure to validate Van Dien's semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and daily balance of power , to decide if Van Dien Fused performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.04 |
Virtually no predictability
Van Dien Fused has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Van Dien time series from 8th of December 2024 to 23rd of December 2024 and 23rd of December 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Van Dien Fused price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Van Dien price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.89 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 320 K |
Van Dien Fused lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Van Dien stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Van Dien's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Van Dien returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Van Dien has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Van Dien regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Van Dien stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Van Dien stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Van Dien stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Van Dien Lagged Returns
When evaluating Van Dien's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Van Dien stock have on its future price. Van Dien autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Van Dien autocorrelation shows the relationship between Van Dien stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Van Dien Fused.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Van Dien
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Van Dien position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Van Dien will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Van Dien could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Van Dien when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Van Dien - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Van Dien Fused to buy it.
The correlation of Van Dien is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Van Dien moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Van Dien Fused moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Van Dien can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.