Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Fund Market Value
| VFSTX Fund | USD 10.30 0.01 0.1% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Short-term 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Short-term's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Short-term.
| 04/02/2023 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Short-term on April 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Short-term over 600 days. Vanguard Short-term is related to or competes with Vanguard High, Vanguard Intermediate-ter, Vanguard Gnma, Vanguard Inflation-protec, and Vanguard Wellesley. The fund invests in a variety of high-quality and medium-quality fixed income securities, at least 80 percent of which w... More
Vanguard Short-term Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Short-term's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1747 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.66) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.7719 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1947 |
Vanguard Short-term Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Short-term's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Short-term's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Short-term historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Short-term's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.59) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.34) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Short-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Short Term Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Vanguard Mutual Fund to be very steady. Vanguard Short Term owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0106, which indicates the fund had a 0.0106% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Short-term's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), coefficient of variation of 2600.01, and Semi Deviation of 0.1226 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0016%. The entity has a beta of 0.0116, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Short-term's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Short-term is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Short-term time series from 2nd of April 2023 to 27th of January 2024 and 27th of January 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Short Term price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Vanguard Short-term price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Vanguard Short Term lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Short-term mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Short-term's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Short-term returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Short-term has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Short-term regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Short-term mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Short-term mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Short-term mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Short-term Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Short-term's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Short-term mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Short-term autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Short-term autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Short-term mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Vanguard Short-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Short-term security.
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