ARCA Oil's market value is the price at which a share of ARCA Oil trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of ARCA Oil investors about its performance. ARCA Oil is listed at 1928.39 as of the 3rd of December 2024, which is a 0.36 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The index's lowest day price was 1928.39. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of ARCA Oil and determine expected loss or profit from investing in ARCA Oil over a given investment horizon. Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.
Symbol
ARCA
ARCA Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ARCA Oil's index what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ARCA Oil.
0.00
11/03/2024
No Change 0.00
0.0
In 31 days
12/03/2024
0.00
If you would invest 0.00 in ARCA Oil on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ARCA Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in ARCA Oil over 30 days.
ARCA Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ARCA Oil's index current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ARCA Oil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ARCA Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ARCA Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ARCA Oil historical prices to predict the future ARCA Oil's volatility.
ARCA Oil retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0138, which signifies that the index had a 0.0138% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found eighteen technical indicators for ARCA Oil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. The index owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. the returns on MARKET and ARCA Oil are completely uncorrelated.
Auto-correlation
-0.47
Modest reverse predictability
ARCA Oil has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ARCA Oil time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ARCA Oil price movement. The serial correlation of -0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current ARCA Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.47
Spearman Rank Test
-0.44
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
285.7
ARCA Oil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ARCA Oil index's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ARCA Oil's index expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ARCA Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ARCA Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the index is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
ARCA Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ARCA Oil index is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ARCA Oil index is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ARCA Oil index over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
ARCA Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating ARCA Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ARCA Oil index have on its future price. ARCA Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ARCA Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between ARCA Oil index current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ARCA Oil.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.