CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) (Germany) Market Value
| YCP Stock | 102.22 0.36 0.35% |
| Symbol | CONOCOPHILLIPS |
CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG).
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding CONOCOPHILLIPS or generate 0.0% return on investment in CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) over 30 days. CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) is related to or competes with QURATE RETAIL, Caseys General, Lion One, Harmony Gold, ADRIATIC METALS, and National Retail. More
CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess CONOCOPHILLIPS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.29 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.85 |
CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) historical prices to predict the future CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0211 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0408 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.31) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.32) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) Backtested Returns
Currently, CONOCOPHILLIPS is very steady. CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0105, which signifies that the company had a 0.0105% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for CONOCOPHILLIPS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s risk adjusted performance of 0.0211, and Mean Deviation of 1.42 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0211%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0904, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) is likely to outperform the market. CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) now shows a risk of 2.01%. Please confirm CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to decide if CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
CONOCOPHILLIPS has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.64 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.19 |
CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) Lagged Returns
When evaluating CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) stock have on its future price. CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) autocorrelation shows the relationship between CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock Analysis
When running CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s price analysis, check to measure CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) is operating at the current time. Most of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG)'s price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CONOCOPHILLIPS (YCPSG) to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.