Alcoa Corp Stock Performance
| AA Stock | USD 60.64 0.63 1.05% |
On a scale of 0 to 100, Alcoa Corp holds a performance score of 20. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.88, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Please check Alcoa Corp's mean deviation, standard deviation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Alcoa Corp's price patterns will revert.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Solid
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Alcoa Corp are ranked lower than 20 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite somewhat weak basic indicators, Alcoa Corp sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 1.05 | Five Day Return (0.25) | Year To Date Return 7.25 | Ten Year Return 269.76 | All Time Return 825.8 |
Forward Dividend Yield 0.0067 | Payout Ratio | Last Split Factor 1000:801 | Forward Dividend Rate 0.4 | Dividend Date 2025-11-21 |
| Alcoa Corp dividend paid on 21st of November 2025 | 11/21/2025 |
1 | Alcoa Reaches New 12-Month High Whats Next | 01/05/2026 |
2 | Premium Earnings 1-22-26 Alcoa and Intel | 01/22/2026 |
3 | Alcoa expects 10ton CBAM premium uplift in Europe for 2026 while advancing San Ciprin restart | 01/23/2026 |
4 | Should you buy the dip on these red hot ASX 200 stocks | 01/27/2026 |
5 | Alcoa Q4 Results Highlight Low Carbon Projects And Valuation Debate | 01/28/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 1.2 B | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -502 M |
Alcoa Corp Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 3,710 in Alcoa Corp on November 1, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 2,354 from holding Alcoa Corp or generate 63.45% return on investment over 90 days. Alcoa Corp is generating 0.8761% of daily returns and assumes 3.3263% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Put differently, 29% of stocks are less risky than Alcoa on the basis of their historical return distribution, and some 83% of all equities are expected to be superior in generating returns on investments over the next 90 days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Alcoa Corp Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Alcoa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 60.64 | 90 days | 60.64 | about 11.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.4 (This Alcoa Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.88 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Alcoa Corp has an alpha of 0.6054, implying that it can generate a 0.61 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alcoa Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcoa Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcoa Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcoa Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcoa Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Alcoa Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcoa Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcoa Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alcoa Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Alcoa Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alcoa Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Alcoa Q4 Results Highlight Low Carbon Projects And Valuation Debate |
Alcoa Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcoa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 263.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Alcoa Corp Fundamentals Growth
Alcoa Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Alcoa Corp, and Alcoa Corp fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Alcoa Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | 0.2 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0514 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.09 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 16.29 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 258.96 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 9.32 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 2.52 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.21 X | ||||
| Revenue | 12.83 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 2.19 B | ||||
| EBITDA | 1.86 B | ||||
| Net Income | 1.13 B | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.6 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 8.09 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 1000 K | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.26 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 1.81 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 23.64 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.19 B | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 4.42 X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 15.54 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 16.21 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (258 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 1.52 B | ||||
| Current Asset | 2.57 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 2.4 B | ||||
About Alcoa Corp Performance
By analyzing Alcoa Corp's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Alcoa Corp's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Alcoa Corp has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Alcoa Corp has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 72.19 | 48.62 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | 0.07 | 0.07 | |
| Return On Capital Employed | 0.08 | 0.11 | |
| Return On Assets | 0.07 | 0.07 | |
| Return On Equity | 0.19 | 0.20 |
Things to note about Alcoa Corp performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcoa Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcoa Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alcoa Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Alcoa Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alcoa Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Alcoa Q4 Results Highlight Low Carbon Projects And Valuation Debate |
- Analyzing Alcoa Corp's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Alcoa Corp's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Alcoa Corp's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Alcoa Corp's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Alcoa Corp's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Alcoa Corp's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Alcoa Corp's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis
When running Alcoa Corp's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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