Alcoa Corp Stock Performance

AA Stock  USD 64.89  3.48  5.67%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Alcoa Corp holds a performance score of 18. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.84, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Please check Alcoa Corp's mean deviation, standard deviation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Alcoa Corp's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Solid

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Alcoa Corp are ranked lower than 18 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite somewhat conflicting basic indicators, Alcoa Corp sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
2.68
Five Day Return
5.15
Year To Date Return
8.61
Ten Year Return
211.73
All Time Return
837.56
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0067
Payout Ratio
0.1058
Last Split Factor
1000:801
Forward Dividend Rate
0.4
Dividend Date
2025-11-21
1
Alcoa Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
01/22/2026
2
Disposition of 21078 shares by William Oplinger of Alcoa Corp at 58.55 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/26/2026
3
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02/04/2026
4
Alcoa Is Up 7.3 percent After Bullish Technical Breakout And Short-Squeeze Signals Has The Bull Case Changed
02/13/2026
5
US Open to Changing Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Greer Says
02/17/2026
6
Alcoa pays Australian feds 36 million for unlawful forest clearing
02/18/2026
7
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02/19/2026
8
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02/20/2026
9
Factbox-Stocks to watch as Trumps new tariffs spell more uncertainty
02/23/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.2 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-502 M

Alcoa Corp Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  4,174  in Alcoa Corp on November 27, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  2,316  from holding Alcoa Corp or generate 55.49% return on investment over 90 days. Alcoa Corp is generating 0.7948% of daily returns and assumes 3.4024% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Put differently, 30% of stocks are less risky than Alcoa on the basis of their historical return distribution, and some 84% of all equities are expected to be superior in generating returns on investments over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Alcoa Corp is expected to generate 4.45 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.45 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.23 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Alcoa Corp Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Alcoa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 64.89 90 days 64.89 
about 10.97
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 10.97 (This Alcoa Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.84 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Alcoa Corp has an alpha of 0.6666, implying that it can generate a 0.67 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Alcoa Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
57.0260.3963.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.6261.9965.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
60.5363.9067.27
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
55.5961.0867.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcoa Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcoa Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcoa Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcoa Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.67
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.84
σ
Overall volatility
8.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.22

Alcoa Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcoa Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcoa Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alcoa Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Alcoa Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Alcoa Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Factbox-Stocks to watch as Trumps new tariffs spell more uncertainty

Alcoa Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcoa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding263.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.6 B

Alcoa Corp Fundamentals Growth

Alcoa Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Alcoa Corp, and Alcoa Corp fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Alcoa Stock performance.

About Alcoa Corp Performance

By analyzing Alcoa Corp's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Alcoa Corp's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Alcoa Corp has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Alcoa Corp has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 72.19  48.62 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.07  0.07 
Return On Capital Employed 0.08  0.11 
Return On Assets 0.07  0.07 
Return On Equity 0.19  0.20 

Things to note about Alcoa Corp performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcoa Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcoa Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alcoa Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Alcoa Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Alcoa Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Factbox-Stocks to watch as Trumps new tariffs spell more uncertainty
Evaluating Alcoa Corp's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Alcoa Corp's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Alcoa Corp's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Alcoa Corp's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Alcoa Corp's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Alcoa Corp's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Alcoa Corp's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Alcoa Corp's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Alcoa Corp's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Alcoa Corp's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Alcoa Corp's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Alcoa Corp's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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