Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF Performance

AGOX ETF  USD 32.39  -0.14  -0.43%   
Adaptive Alpha's return record is summarized here, from recent weeks to multi-year horizons. Over the last 3 months, the expected return is 0.13%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Contained
 
Weak
 
Strong
Across the last 90 days, the risk-adjusted return profile of Adaptive Alpha Opportunities is weaker than 6% of the global equities and portfolios reviewed by Macroaxis. Current market capitalization is about 3.15 Million. Despite somewhat uncertain basic indicators, Adaptive Alpha may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in May 2026. Learn More

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 3,003 in Adaptive Alpha Opportunities on January 25, 2026 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 236.00 from holding Adaptive Alpha Opportunities or generated 7.86% return on investment over 90 days. Adaptive Alpha Opportunities is currently generating a 0.1346% daily expected return and carries 1.7222% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, Adaptive exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 85% of comparable etfs, and the ETF has trailed 98% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This benchmark view frames the instrument through return capture and volatility trade-offs. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Given a 90-day horizon, Adaptive Alpha generates 1.81 times more return on investment than the market. However, the ETF is 1.81 times more volatile than its market benchmark. Its risk-adjusted efficiency stands at about 0.08% per unit of risk. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.0% per unit of risk.

Historical Prices of Adaptive Alpha

Below is the normalized historical share price chart for Adaptive Alpha Opportunities extending back to May 10, 2021. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of Adaptive Alpha stands at 32.39, as last reported on the 25th of April, with the highest price reaching 32.95 and the lowest price hitting 31.86 during the day.
Macro event markers
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

One of the most enduring patterns in ETF markets is the tendency for prices to revert toward averages. This mean-reverting tendency has been a useful forecasting tool, though some ETFs exhibit persistent mispricings. The speed of convergence varies because some ETFs carry risk factors not immediately reflected in price. Understanding mean reversion in Adaptive ETF helps frame realistic expectations for price normalization over time.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
32.39 90 days 32.39
about 1.74
Applying a normal distribution to this ETF, the odds of Adaptive Alpha moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 1.74 . Based on past return behavior, the distribution of outcomes has been weighted above current levels over this period. (The probability curve shows the outcome range with the heaviest concentration for Adaptive ETF over 90 days). A tighter center suggests recent price behavior has been clustering into a narrower range for Adaptive ETF.
Given a 90-day horizon, Adaptive Alpha Opportunities has a beta of -0.0181. This suggests that as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on Adaptive Alpha tend to move in the opposite direction, though by a smaller magnitude. During a bear market, however, Adaptive Alpha Opportunities tends to outperform the market. Additionally, Adaptive Alpha Opportunities has an alpha of 0.1394, implying that it can generate a 0.1394 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Adaptive Alpha Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Adaptive Alpha

For Adaptive Alpha, multiple forecasting techniques provide different perspectives on future ETF price direction. No method can consistently predict the ETF market with certainty, but disciplined forecasting sharpens analysis. Comparing the outputs of diverse models helps set realistic expectations for Adaptive Alpha price behavior. This multi-model approach prepares for a range of potential outcomes in Adaptive Alpha.
Mean reversion analysis in Adaptive Alpha's involves identifying price extremes that diverge materially from the historical norm. High prices relative to historical norms contrast with unusually low prices, where recovery expectations may emerge. Mean reversion in Adaptive Alpha is distinct from trend following, which rides momentum rather than betting on reversals. Momentum identifies the trend while mean reversion identifies when it has extended beyond sustainable levels.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
30.6132.3334.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
27.3929.1135.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
30.8132.5434.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.2328.9533.67
Details
Adaptive Alpha's financial and valuation profile is evaluated here relative to direct competitors. Adaptive Alpha's multiples and operating metrics gain context when measured against direct competitors. Growth rates, profitability, and capital efficiency relative to peers frame Adaptive Alpha's competitive position. This relative positioning provides the competitive context that single-company analysis alone cannot deliver.

Primary Risk Indicators

The ETF market's volatility over the past 10-20 years has tested even experienced investors in Adaptive Alpha. Large corrections and rapid recoveries have created challenges for investors in Adaptive Alpha Opportunities. A disciplined approach to monitoring Adaptive Alpha's risk indicators supports more effective hedging decisions. Fundamental risk indicators provide the analytical foundation for evaluating Adaptive Alpha downside exposure.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.0181
σ
Overall volatility
1.63
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Investor Alerts and Insights

Monitoring Adaptive Alpha alerts is a practical approach to staying informed about material ETF changes. Reviewing ongoing notifications for Adaptive Alpha helps identify opportunities and risks before they are fully priced in. Multiple alert categories for Adaptive Alpha focus on the signals most relevant to a given strategy. This proactive approach supports better-timed portfolio adjustments.

Adaptive Alpha Fundamentals Growth

Adaptive Alpha's financial fundamentals are the foundation of Adaptive ETF market pricing and valuation. Metrics like earnings growth, revenue consistency, and margin trends collectively determine market sentiment toward Adaptive ETF. Adaptive ETF market pricing reflects the collective assessment of Adaptive Alpha's financial fundamentals. These fundamental drivers have a direct and measurable impact on Adaptive ETF performance.
Total Asset161.16 M

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Return consistency for Adaptive Alpha reflects how stable tracking behavior has been across different market conditions. The asset may exhibit relatively defensive behavior during changing market conditions.

Adaptive Alpha Opportunities inputs come from fund disclosures and market reference feeds and are mapped into a consistent reporting framework. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Michael Smolkin, Member of Macroaxis Board of Directors