Challenger (Australia) Performance

CGF Stock   8.92  0.23  2.51%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.28, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Challenger are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Challenger is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Challenger has a negative expected return of -0.0104%. Please make sure to confirm Challenger's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Challenger performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Challenger has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of comparatively stable technical and fundamental indicators, Challenger is not utilizing all of its potentials. The newest stock price uproar, may contribute to short-horizon losses for the private investors. ...more
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0336
Payout Ratio
0.0174
Last Split Factor
1:5
Forward Dividend Rate
0.3
Ex Dividend Date
2025-08-26
1
Retail Investors Drive Influence in Challenger Limited ASX 200 - Kalkine Media
11/11/2025
2
Why Challenger Limited stock attracts HNW investors - Market Activity Summary AI Optimized Trading Strategy Guides - newser.com
11/19/2025
3
Indexes end near flat, supported by Fed hopes but dragged by Amazon - Reuters
12/04/2025
4
Nvidia challenger Moore warns trading risks after stock frenzy - MSN
12/11/2025
5
Challenger Updates Market on Minimal Change to Employee Plan Share Holdings - TipRanks
12/30/2025
6
The Truth About Challenger Ltd Why Everyone Is Suddenly Talking - AD HOC NEWS
01/06/2026
7
High-speed Starlink comes to Challenger 350 jets at flyExclusive fleet - Stock Titan
01/14/2026
8
TURK SHIFTS DIRECTION, TARGETS COMPETITION ELIMINATOR WITH ROSSI-TRIBUTE CHALLENGER - Competition Plus
01/29/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow573.2 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-1.2 B
  

Challenger Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  902.00  in Challenger on November 11, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (10.00) from holding Challenger or give up 1.11% of portfolio value over 90 days. Challenger is producing return of less than zero assuming 1.2636% volatility of returns over the 90 days investment horizon. Simply put, 11% of all stocks have less volatile historical return distribution than Challenger, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Challenger is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 1.57 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.01 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.09 per unit of volatility.

Challenger Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Challenger Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 8.92 90 days 8.92 
about 83.06
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Challenger to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 83.06 (This Challenger probability density function shows the probability of Challenger Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Challenger has a beta of -0.28 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Challenger are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Challenger is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Challenger has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Challenger Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Challenger

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Challenger. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.668.9210.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.307.569.81
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.120.140.15
Details

Challenger Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Challenger is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Challenger's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Challenger, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Challenger within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.28
σ
Overall volatility
0.23
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Challenger Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Challenger for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Challenger can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Challenger generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: TURK SHIFTS DIRECTION, TARGETS COMPETITION ELIMINATOR WITH ROSSI-TRIBUTE CHALLENGER - Competition Plus

Challenger Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Challenger Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Challenger's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Challenger's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding696.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments32.4 B

Challenger Fundamentals Growth

Challenger Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Challenger, and Challenger fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Challenger Stock performance.

About Challenger Performance

Assessing Challenger's fundamental ratios provides investors with valuable insights into Challenger's financial health and overall profitability. This information is crucial for making informed investment decisions. A high ROA would indicate that the Challenger is effectively leveraging its assets and equity to generate significant profits, making it an appealing investment. Conversely, low Return on Assets could signal underlying management issues in assets and equity, indicating a necessity for operational refinements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Challenger is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange.

Things to note about Challenger performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Challenger for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Challenger help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Challenger generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: TURK SHIFTS DIRECTION, TARGETS COMPETITION ELIMINATOR WITH ROSSI-TRIBUTE CHALLENGER - Competition Plus
Evaluating Challenger's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Challenger's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Challenger's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Challenger's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Challenger's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Challenger's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Challenger's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Challenger's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Challenger's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Challenger's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Challenger's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Tools for Challenger Stock Analysis

When running Challenger's price analysis, check to measure Challenger's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Challenger is operating at the current time. Most of Challenger's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Challenger's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Challenger's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Challenger to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.