Cotton Commodity Performance
| CTUSX Commodity | 63.46 0.27 0.42% |
The commodity shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.14, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Cotton's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Cotton is expected to be smaller as well.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weakest
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days Cotton has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of fairly strong basic indicators, Cotton is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors. ...more
Cotton |
Cotton Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 6,568 in Cotton on November 1, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (222.00) from holding Cotton or give up 3.38% of portfolio value over 90 days. Cotton is currently producing negative expected returns and takes up 0.7952% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 7% of traded commoditys are less volatile than Cotton, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Cotton Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Cotton Commodity price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 63.46 | 90 days | 63.46 | about 89.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cotton to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.79 (This Cotton probability density function shows the probability of Cotton Commodity to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Cotton has a beta of 0.14 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cotton average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cotton will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cotton has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cotton Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cotton
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cotton. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cotton's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cotton Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cotton is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cotton's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cotton, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cotton within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Cotton Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cotton for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cotton can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cotton generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
| Cotton generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |