Heating Oil Commodity Performance
| HOUSD Commodity | 2.53 0.05 2.02% |
The commodity retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.35, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Heating Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Heating Oil is likely to outperform the market.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Soft
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Heating Oil are ranked lower than 2 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, Heating Oil is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders. ...more
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Heating Oil Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 244.00 in Heating Oil on November 4, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 9.00 from holding Heating Oil or generate 3.69% return on investment over 90 days. Heating Oil is currently producing 0.0852% returns and takes up 2.4116% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 21% of traded commoditys are less volatile than Heating, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days. Expected Return |
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Heating Oil Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Heating Commodity price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 2.53 | 90 days | 2.53 | about 11.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heating Oil to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.97 (This Heating Oil probability density function shows the probability of Heating Commodity to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Heating Oil has a beta of -0.35. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Heating Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Heating Oil is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Heating Oil has an alpha of 0.1039, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Heating Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Heating Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heating Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heating Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.