Moderna (Brazil) Performance

M1RN34 Stock  BRL 12.74  0.63  5.20%   
Moderna holds a performance score of 18 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.021, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Moderna are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Moderna is likely to outperform the market. Use Moderna coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to analyze future returns on Moderna.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Solid

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Moderna are ranked lower than 18 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite somewhat weak basic indicators, Moderna sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow2.6 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-8.5 B
  

Moderna Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  632.00  in Moderna on November 21, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  579.00  from holding Moderna or generate 91.61% return on investment over 90 days. Moderna is generating 1.2725% of daily returns and assumes 5.5484% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Simply put, 49% of stocks are less volatile than Moderna, and 75% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Moderna is expected to generate 7.44 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 7.44 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.23 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.15 per unit of risk.

Moderna Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Moderna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 12.74 90 days 12.74 
nearly 4.05
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moderna to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.05 (This Moderna probability density function shows the probability of Moderna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Moderna has a beta of -0.021. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Moderna are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Moderna is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Moderna has an alpha of 1.104, implying that it can generate a 1.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Moderna Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Moderna

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.1912.7418.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.979.5215.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
6.4311.9717.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
-4.3711.1226.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moderna. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moderna's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moderna's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Moderna.

Moderna Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moderna is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moderna's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moderna, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moderna within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
1.10
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.02
σ
Overall volatility
2.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.19

Moderna Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moderna for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moderna can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Moderna is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Moderna appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues

Moderna Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moderna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moderna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moderna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding403 M
Cash And Short Term Investments10.7 B

Moderna Fundamentals Growth

Moderna Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Moderna, and Moderna fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Moderna Stock performance.

About Moderna Performance

By analyzing Moderna's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Moderna's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Moderna has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Moderna has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MODERNA INC operates under Biotechnology classification in Brazil and is traded on Sao Paolo Stock Exchange. It employs 1800 people.

Things to note about Moderna performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Moderna for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Moderna help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Moderna is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Moderna appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Evaluating Moderna's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Moderna's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Moderna's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Moderna's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Moderna's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Moderna's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Moderna's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Moderna's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Moderna's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Moderna's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Moderna's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis

When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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