Novonix Stock Performance

NVNXF Stock  USD 0.28  0.01  3.70%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.83, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Novonix will likely underperform. At this point, Novonix has a negative expected return of -0.4%. Please make sure to verify Novonix's value at risk, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the Daily Balance Of Power and period momentum indicator , to decide if Novonix performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Novonix has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite fragile performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in February 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow136.7 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-147.4 M
  

Novonix Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  41.00  in Novonix on October 30, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (13.00) from holding Novonix or give up 31.71% of portfolio value over 90 days. Novonix is currently producing negative expected returns and takes up 6.8167% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 61% of traded pink sheets are less volatile than Novonix, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon Novonix is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 9.03 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.06 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

Novonix Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Novonix Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.28 90 days 0.28 
about 69.57
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novonix to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 69.57 (This Novonix probability density function shows the probability of Novonix Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 1.83 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Novonix will likely underperform. Additionally Novonix has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Novonix Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Novonix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novonix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novonix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.287.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.267.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
00.217.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.230.300.38
Details

Novonix Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novonix is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novonix's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novonix, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novonix within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.71
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.83
σ
Overall volatility
0.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Novonix Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novonix for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novonix can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Novonix generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Novonix has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Novonix has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company reported the revenue of 8.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (71.44 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.41 M.
Novonix has accumulated about 207.08 M in cash with (40.35 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.43, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Novonix Fundamentals Growth

Novonix Pink Sheet prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Novonix, and Novonix fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Novonix Pink Sheet performance.

About Novonix Performance

By analyzing Novonix's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Novonix's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Novonix has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Novonix has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Novonix Limited develops and supplies battery materials, equipment, and services to the lithium-ion battery market in North America. Novonix Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Brisbane, Australia. Novonix is traded on OTC Exchange in the United States.

Things to note about Novonix performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Novonix for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Pink Sheet alerts and notifications screener for Novonix help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Novonix generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Novonix has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Novonix has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company reported the revenue of 8.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (71.44 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.41 M.
Novonix has accumulated about 207.08 M in cash with (40.35 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.43, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Evaluating Novonix's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Novonix's pink sheet performance include:
  • Analyzing Novonix's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Novonix's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Novonix's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Novonix's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Novonix's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Novonix's pink sheet. These opinions can provide insight into Novonix's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Novonix's pink sheet performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Novonix's pink sheet market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Novonix's price analysis, check to measure Novonix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novonix is operating at the current time. Most of Novonix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novonix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novonix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novonix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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