Shopify Stock Performance

SHOP Stock  CAD 156.72  6.46  3.96%   
The entity has a beta of 1.05, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Shopify returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Shopify is expected to follow. At this point, Shopify has a negative expected return of -0.46%. Please make sure to validate Shopify's maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Shopify performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Shopify has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more
Last Split Factor
10:1
Last Split Date
2022-06-29
1
HSTM or SHOP Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now - Yahoo Finance
12/10/2025
2
Shopify Inc. SHOP Shares Acquired by Thrivent Financial for Lutherans - MarketBeat
12/24/2025
3
Shopify stock slides today as year-end tech rebalancing hits SHOP ahead of New Years Eve session - ts2.tech
12/30/2025
4
Shopifys AI Push Paid Off Handsomely In 2025 Will The New Year Usher In More Gains - Stocktwits
01/02/2026
5
Assessing Shopify Valuation As Momentum Cools After Strong Multi Year Shareholder Returns - simplywall.st
01/06/2026
6
Whats Going On With Shopify Stock - Benzinga
01/15/2026
7
Why Shopify Stock Is Down Today - The Globe and Mail
01/20/2026
8
Inventory Reduction Explained Methods, Challenges, and Practical Tips - Shopify
02/04/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.4 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-1.6 B
  

Shopify Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  21,422  in Shopify on November 7, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (5,750) from holding Shopify or give up 26.84% of portfolio value over 90 days. Shopify is generating negative expected returns and assumes 3.116% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Simply put, 27% of stocks are less volatile than Shopify, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Shopify is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 4.14 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.15 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of volatility.

Shopify Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Shopify Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 156.72 90 days 156.72 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Shopify to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Shopify probability density function shows the probability of Shopify Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.05 . This usually implies Shopify market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Shopify is expected to follow. Additionally Shopify has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Shopify Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Shopify

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shopify. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
153.62156.72159.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
142.97146.07172.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
151.41154.52157.62
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.320.510.41
Details

Shopify Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Shopify is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Shopify's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Shopify, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Shopify within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.69
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.05
σ
Overall volatility
18.37
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

Shopify Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Shopify for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Shopify can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Shopify generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Shopify has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Shopify is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Inventory Reduction Explained Methods, Challenges, and Practical Tips - Shopify

Shopify Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Shopify Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Shopify's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shopify's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.3 B
Cash And Short Term Investments5.5 B

Shopify Fundamentals Growth

Shopify Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Shopify, and Shopify fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Shopify Stock performance.

About Shopify Performance

By examining Shopify's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Shopify's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Shopify is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 1.94  1.64 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.15  0.14 
Return On Capital Employed 0.08  0.08 
Return On Assets 0.13  0.14 
Return On Equity 0.16  0.17 

Things to note about Shopify performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Shopify for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Shopify help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Shopify generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Shopify has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Shopify is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Inventory Reduction Explained Methods, Challenges, and Practical Tips - Shopify
Evaluating Shopify's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Shopify's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Shopify's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Shopify's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Shopify's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Shopify's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Shopify's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Shopify's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Shopify's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Shopify's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Shopify's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Shopify is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Shopify Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Shopify Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Shopify Stock:
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Shopify. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
To learn how to invest in Shopify Stock, please use our How to Invest in Shopify guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shopify's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shopify is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Shopify's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.