iShares MSCI USA ETF Performance

ETFs . USA . 
ETF . iShares MSCI USA
SMLF ETF  USD 84.87  0.05  0.06%   
IShares MSCI's total-return profile spans short-term moves to multi-year compounding. Based on the 3 months horizon, IShares MSCI shows an expected return of 0.12%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
0100
7 · Moderate
Over the last 90 days, iShares MSCI USA ranks in the bottom 93% of global equities and portfolios on a risk-adjusted return basis. A lower ranking does not preclude recovery, but it does signal that recent efficiency has lagged peers. IShares MSCI has posted moderately positive risk-adjusted returns recently, though the trend requires confirmation over a longer horizon. Learn More

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 7,930 in iShares MSCI USA on February 6, 2026 and sold it today, you would have earned $ 552.00 , a return of 6.96% over 90 days. iShares MSCI USA is currently generating a 0.1159% daily expected return and carries 1.22% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, IShares MSCI exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 90% of comparable etfs, and SMLF has trailed 98% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This benchmark view frames the instrument through return capture and volatility trade-offs. It is informative when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given a 90-day horizon, SMLF generates 1.32 times more return on investment than the market. However, SMLF is 1.32 times more volatile than its market benchmark. Its risk-adjusted efficiency stands at about 0.09% per unit of risk. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.0% per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Price convergence toward a historical mean is a well-documented pattern for ETFs like IShares MSCI ETF. Although this tendency is a useful forecasting input, some instruments remain persistently mispriced before market correction. Periods of persistent mispricing in some ETFs highlight the role of additional risk in pricing dynamics. This framework supports more structured thinking about where IShares MSCI ETF price is likely to settle over time.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
84.87 90 days 84.87
about 1.26 %
Our distribution model estimates the likelihood of IShares MSCI moving above the current price in 90 days from now at about 1.26 %. Past return patterns over this horizon reflect a distribution that has favored above-current-price scenarios. (This iShares MSCI USA distribution emphasizes the price range most consistent with recent behavior in IShares MSCI ETF over a 90-day period).
Given a 90-day horizon, the ETF has the beta coefficient of 1.15 . This usually implies iShares MSCI USA market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, IShares MSCI tends to follow. Additionally, IShares MSCI USA has an alpha of 0.1406, implying that it can generate a 0.1406 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   IShares MSCI Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for IShares MSCI

Investors apply quantitative and fundamental models to forecast iShares MSCI USA within the ETF market. Combining results from different methods frames the confidence level warranted by iShares MSCI USA predictions. Evaluating multiple forecasts helps separate persistent signals from short-term noise in iShares MSCI USA price data. For iShares MSCI USA, the combination of techniques matters more than the precision of any individual forecast.
Statistical evidence for mean reversion in IShares MSCI's appears through its tendency to revert after extreme valuations. Under mean reversion theory, IShares MSCI's price extremes are viewed as temporary dislocations that may self-correct. Mean reversion in IShares MSCI's is often observed around historical valuation multiples. Historical data for IShares MSCI shows that extreme valuations have tended to normalize over multi-year periods.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
83.6584.8786.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
76.3890.7691.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
82.2383.4684.68
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
76.8981.2485.60
Details
IShares MSCI is positioned within its peer group by benchmarking margins, returns, and multiples. This peer-relative view identifies where IShares MSCI leads, trails, or tracks its competitive set. Benchmarking earnings quality and balance sheet strength against peers provides additional valuation context. IShares MSCI's relative positioning within the peer group reflects its competitive dynamics as currently priced by the market.

Primary Risk Indicators

Significant market corrections and rallies over the last two decades have made the ETF market challenging for IShares MSCI investors. Dramatic market moves have periodically reshaped the risk landscape for holders of iShares MSCI USA. Watching for changes in IShares MSCI's volatility and market elasticity is one way to limit portfolio losses. A data-driven view of IShares MSCI risk supports more disciplined portfolio management decisions.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones		0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.15
σ
Overall volatility		2.86
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

IShares MSCI Fundamentals Growth

Market participants price IShares MSCI ETF based on their assessment of IShares MSCI's financial trajectory. Revenue and earnings growth, profitability metrics, and debt levels form the core fundamentals driving IShares MSCI ETF. Revenue growth, earnings performance, and balance sheet health are critical fundamentals shaping IShares MSCI ETF. Long-term performance of IShares MSCI ETF depends on IShares MSCI's ability to maintain strong fundamental execution.
Earnings Per Share-16.21 X

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Return consistency for IShares MSCI reflects how stable tracking behavior has been across different market conditions. The asset's responsiveness to economic cycles appears relatively balanced.

iShares MSCI USA data is compiled from fund disclosures and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Gabriel Shpitalnik, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
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Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and conditions page.