CITIC Guoan (China) Price Prediction
| 000839 Stock | 3.42 0.13 3.95% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.79) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.325 |
Using CITIC Guoan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CITIC Guoan Information from the perspective of CITIC Guoan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CITIC Guoan to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CITIC because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CITIC Guoan after-hype prediction price | CNY 3.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CITIC |
CITIC Guoan After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CITIC Guoan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CITIC Guoan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CITIC Guoan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CITIC Guoan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CITIC Guoan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CITIC Guoan's historical news coverage. CITIC Guoan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 7.78, respectively. We have considered CITIC Guoan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CITIC Guoan is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CITIC Guoan Information is based on 3 months time horizon.
CITIC Guoan Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CITIC Guoan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CITIC Guoan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CITIC Guoan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.82 | 4.42 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.42 | 3.36 | 1.75 |
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CITIC Guoan Hype Timeline
CITIC Guoan Information is presently traded for 3.42on Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. CITIC is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -1.75%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.82%. The volatility of related hype on CITIC Guoan is about 3287.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.53. About 39.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company last dividend was issued on the 27th of August 2018. CITIC Guoan Information had 25:10 split on the 29th of July 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out CITIC Guoan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CITIC Guoan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CITIC Guoan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CITIC Guoan's future price movements. Getting to know how CITIC Guoan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CITIC Guoan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 601398 | Industrial and Commercial | (0.04) | 3 per month | 1.58 | (0.06) | 2.83 | (3.06) | 8.14 | |
| 601288 | Agricultural Bank of | (0.15) | 1 per month | 1.97 | (0.05) | 3.21 | (3.89) | 8.24 | |
| 601939 | China Construction Bank | 0.01 | 2 per month | 1.76 | (0.05) | 3.32 | (3.86) | 8.64 | |
| 601988 | Bank of China | 0.14 | 3 per month | 1.48 | (0.04) | 2.67 | (2.86) | 7.70 | |
| 601658 | Postal Savings Bank | (0.12) | 2 per month | 1.79 | (0) | 3.49 | (2.84) | 9.13 | |
| 601328 | Bank of Communications | (0.07) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.26 | (3.60) | 10.82 | |
| 600036 | China Merchants Bank | 1.26 | 1 per month | 1.84 | 0.02 | 4.65 | (2.56) | 13.83 | |
| 601166 | Industrial Bank Co | 0.18 | 1 per month | 1.61 | (0.0007) | 3.84 | (2.56) | 12.07 | |
| 600000 | Shanghai Pudong Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.57 | (0.02) | 3.69 | (2.94) | 10.95 |
CITIC Guoan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CITIC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CITIC using various technical indicators. When you analyze CITIC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CITIC Guoan Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CITIC Guoan stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CITIC Guoan Information, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CITIC Guoan based on analysis of CITIC Guoan hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CITIC Guoan's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CITIC Guoan's related companies.
Story Coverage note for CITIC Guoan
The number of cover stories for CITIC Guoan depends on current market conditions and CITIC Guoan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CITIC Guoan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CITIC Guoan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CITIC Guoan Short Properties
CITIC Guoan's future price predictability will typically decrease when CITIC Guoan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CITIC Guoan Information often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CITIC Guoan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CITIC Guoan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 B |
Complementary Tools for CITIC Stock analysis
When running CITIC Guoan's price analysis, check to measure CITIC Guoan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CITIC Guoan is operating at the current time. Most of CITIC Guoan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CITIC Guoan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CITIC Guoan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CITIC Guoan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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