Alliance Data (UK) Price Prediction
| 0HCR Stock | 58.29 2.23 3.98% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
Using Alliance Data hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alliance Data Systems from the perspective of Alliance Data response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alliance Data to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alliance because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alliance Data after-hype prediction price | USD 58.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alliance |
Alliance Data After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alliance Data at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alliance Data or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alliance Data, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alliance Data Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alliance Data's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alliance Data's historical news coverage. Alliance Data's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.72 and 61.94, respectively. We have considered Alliance Data's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alliance Data is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alliance Data Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alliance Data Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alliance Data is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alliance Data backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alliance Data, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.61 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
58.29 | 58.33 | 0.07 |
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Alliance Data Hype Timeline
Alliance Data Systems is presently traded for 58.29on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Alliance is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 58.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Alliance Data is about 1444.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.26. The company reported the revenue of 3.06 B. Net Income was 718 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.6 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be very soon. Check out Alliance Data Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alliance Data Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alliance Data's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alliance Data's future price movements. Getting to know how Alliance Data's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alliance Data may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMH | European Metals Holdings | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.88 | (6.45) | 19.12 | |
| 0HI1 | Arrow Electronics | (0.76) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.61 | (2.24) | 16.35 | |
| SVML | Sovereign Metals | (0.50) | 3 per month | 1.50 | 0.1 | 7.46 | (2.78) | 13.81 | |
| FMET | Fulcrum Metals PLC | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | (3.33) | 34.71 | |
| 0IFX | Electronic Arts | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.90 | 0.08 | 1.63 | (1.74) | 4.25 |
Alliance Data Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alliance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alliance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alliance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alliance Data Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alliance Data stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alliance Data Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alliance Data based on analysis of Alliance Data hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alliance Data's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alliance Data's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Alliance Data
The number of cover stories for Alliance Data depends on current market conditions and Alliance Data's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alliance Data is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alliance Data's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alliance Data Short Properties
Alliance Data's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alliance Data's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alliance Data Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alliance Data's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alliance Data's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.6 B |
Additional Tools for Alliance Stock Analysis
When running Alliance Data's price analysis, check to measure Alliance Data's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alliance Data is operating at the current time. Most of Alliance Data's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alliance Data's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alliance Data's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alliance Data to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.