Agl Energy Stock Price Prediction
| AGLXY Stock | USD 7.05 0.03 0.42% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AGL Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGL Energy from the perspective of AGL Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AGL Energy to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AGL because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AGL Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 7.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AGL |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGL Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AGL Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AGL Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGL Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of AGL Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AGL Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AGL Energy's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AGL Energy's historical news coverage. AGL Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.04 and 10.06, respectively. We have considered AGL Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AGL Energy is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AGL Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
AGL Energy Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AGL Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGL Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGL Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 3.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.05 | 7.05 | 0.00 |
|
AGL Energy Hype Timeline
AGL Energy is presently traded for 7.05. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. AGL is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on AGL Energy is about 1627.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.04. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AGL Energy last dividend was issued on the 1st of September 2022. The entity had 1124:1077 split on the 25th of August 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out AGL Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AGL Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AGL Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGL Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how AGL Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGL Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MXGFF | Maxim Power Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.16 | 4.63 | (2.03) | 14.42 | |
| PAM | Pampa Energia SA | 1.85 | 12 per month | 0.88 | 0.33 | 3.57 | (1.98) | 8.23 | |
| NRG | NRG Energy | (0.50) | 9 per month | 2.19 | 0.07 | 2.93 | (3.98) | 12.23 | |
| VST | Vistra Energy Corp | (3.77) | 9 per month | 2.92 | 0.26 | 6.32 | (4.36) | 22.81 | |
| TAC | TransAlta Corp | 1.07 | 9 per month | 1.27 | 0.14 | 4.06 | (2.06) | 13.36 | |
| KEN | Kenon Holdings | 0.24 | 3 per month | 1.65 | 0.06 | 2.93 | (2.87) | 8.45 |
AGL Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AGL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGL using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AGL Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AGL Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AGL Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AGL Energy based on analysis of AGL Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AGL Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AGL Energy's related companies.
Story Coverage note for AGL Energy
The number of cover stories for AGL Energy depends on current market conditions and AGL Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGL Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGL Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
AGL Energy Short Properties
AGL Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when AGL Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AGL Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AGL Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGL Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 640.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 127 M |
Additional Tools for AGL Pink Sheet Analysis
When running AGL Energy's price analysis, check to measure AGL Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AGL Energy is operating at the current time. Most of AGL Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AGL Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AGL Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AGL Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.