American Superconductor Stock Price Prediction
| AMSC Stock | USD 32.37 1.31 3.89% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.07 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.04 | Wall Street Target Price 30.3333 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.602 |
Using American Superconductor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Superconductor from the perspective of American Superconductor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
American Superconductor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Superconductor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Superconductor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Superconductor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Superconductor.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Superconductor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Superconductor after-hype prediction price | USD 31.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
American |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Superconductor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Superconductor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Superconductor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Superconductor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Superconductor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Superconductor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Superconductor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Superconductor's historical news coverage. American Superconductor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.24 and 37.52, respectively. We have considered American Superconductor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Superconductor is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Superconductor is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Superconductor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Superconductor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Superconductor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Superconductor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 6.14 | 0.99 | 0.35 | 12 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.37 | 31.38 | 3.06 |
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American Superconductor Hype Timeline
American Superconductor is presently traded for 32.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.99, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. American is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 31.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.06%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.92%. The volatility of related hype on American Superconductor is about 1595.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.02. About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 273.04. American Superconductor recorded a loss per share of 0.03. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 25th of March 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out American Superconductor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Superconductor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Superconductor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Superconductor's future price movements. Getting to know how American Superconductor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Superconductor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
American Superconductor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About American Superconductor Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Superconductor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Superconductor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Superconductor based on analysis of American Superconductor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Superconductor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Superconductor's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 68.26 | 105.61 | 65.98 | 104.59 | PTB Ratio | 1.89 | 1.67 | 2.78 | 3.27 |
Story Coverage note for American Superconductor
The number of cover stories for American Superconductor depends on current market conditions and American Superconductor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Superconductor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Superconductor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Superconductor Short Properties
American Superconductor's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Superconductor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Superconductor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Superconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Superconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 90.5 M |
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Superconductor's price analysis, check to measure American Superconductor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Superconductor is operating at the current time. Most of American Superconductor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Superconductor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Superconductor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Superconductor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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