Bae Systems Plc Stock Price Prediction
| BAESF Stock | USD 16.64 0.04 0.24% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
61
Oversold | Overbought |
Using BAE Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BAE Systems PLC from the perspective of BAE Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BAE Systems to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BAE because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
BAE Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 16.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
BAE |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BAE Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BAE Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BAE Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BAE Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of BAE Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BAE Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BAE Systems' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BAE Systems' historical news coverage. BAE Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.18 and 19.10, respectively. We have considered BAE Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BAE Systems is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BAE Systems PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
BAE Systems Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BAE Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BAE Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BAE Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.46 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.64 | 16.64 | 0.00 |
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BAE Systems Hype Timeline
BAE Systems PLC is currently traded for 16.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. BAE is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on BAE Systems is about 487.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.67. About 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of BAE Systems was currently reported as 3.62. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of October 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out BAE Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.BAE Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BAE Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BAE Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how BAE Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BAE Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 2.30 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.45 | (2.65) | 28.75 | |
| RNMBY | Rheinmetall AG ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.98 | 0.01 | 3.28 | (3.26) | 10.50 | |
| EADSY | Airbus Group NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.97 | (3.16) | 7.38 | |
| GD | General Dynamics | (2.84) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.63 | (1.51) | 10.86 | |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | (3.10) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.62 | (1.78) | 6.85 | |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | 1.82 | 5 per month | 1.30 | (0.03) | 2.19 | (1.78) | 8.70 | |
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 7.39 | 8 per month | 1.68 | 0.09 | 2.96 | (2.48) | 11.02 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | (1.53) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.35 | (2.66) | 6.19 |
BAE Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BAE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BAE using various technical indicators. When you analyze BAE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About BAE Systems Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of BAE Systems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BAE Systems PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BAE Systems based on analysis of BAE Systems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BAE Systems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BAE Systems's related companies.
Story Coverage note for BAE Systems
The number of cover stories for BAE Systems depends on current market conditions and BAE Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BAE Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BAE Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BAE Systems Short Properties
BAE Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when BAE Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BAE Systems PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BAE Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BAE Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.2 B |
Complementary Tools for BAE Pink Sheet analysis
When running BAE Systems' price analysis, check to measure BAE Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BAE Systems is operating at the current time. Most of BAE Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BAE Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BAE Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BAE Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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