Great Elm Capital Stock Price Prediction
| GECCO Stock | USD 24.81 0.04 0.16% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Great Elm hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Great Elm Capital from the perspective of Great Elm response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Great Elm to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Great because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Great Elm after-hype prediction price | USD 24.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Great |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Elm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great Elm After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Great Elm at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Great Elm or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Great Elm, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Great Elm Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Great Elm's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Great Elm's historical news coverage. Great Elm's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.37 and 25.25, respectively. We have considered Great Elm's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Great Elm is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Great Elm Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Great Elm Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Great Elm is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Great Elm backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Great Elm, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.81 | 24.81 | 0.00 |
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Great Elm Hype Timeline
Great Elm Capital is currently traded for 24.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Great is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Great Elm is about 11000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.81. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2024. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Great Elm Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Great Elm Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Great Elm's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Great Elm's future price movements. Getting to know how Great Elm's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Great Elm may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GAINN | Gladstone Investment | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.33 | (0.17) | 0.78 | (0.69) | 2.65 | |
| RILYK | B Riley Financial | (0.03) | 3 per month | 1.83 | 0.12 | 7.89 | (4.03) | 38.78 | |
| 444859BR2 | HUMANA INC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.93 | (4.50) | 16.62 | |
| AQUI | Aquagold International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BRRAY | Barloworld Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | (2.98) | 34.02 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.52 | (0.11) | 1.21 | (1.02) | 2.80 | |
| ABHYX | High Yield Municipal Fund | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.26 | (0.33) | 0.34 | (0.33) | 1.91 | |
| LBHIX | Thrivent High Yield | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.48) | 0.24 | (0.24) | 0.96 | |
| SCAXF | Sparta Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.47 | |
| VIASP | Via Renewables | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.01 | 2.28 | (1.15) | 7.18 |
Great Elm Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Great price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Great using various technical indicators. When you analyze Great charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Great Elm Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Great Elm stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Great Elm Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Great Elm based on analysis of Great Elm hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Great Elm's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Great Elm's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Great Elm
The number of cover stories for Great Elm depends on current market conditions and Great Elm's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Great Elm is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Great Elm's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Great Elm Short Properties
Great Elm's future price predictability will typically decrease when Great Elm's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Great Elm Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Great Elm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Elm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1395 |
Check out Great Elm Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Business Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Great Elm. If investors know Great will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Great Elm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Great Elm Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Great that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Great Elm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Great Elm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Great Elm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Great Elm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Great Elm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Great Elm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Great Elm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.