Natwest Group Plc Stock Price Prediction
| NWG Stock | USD 10.84 0.26 2.34% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.429 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.25 | Wall Street Target Price 10.755 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.29 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.074 |
Using Natwest Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Natwest Group PLC from the perspective of Natwest Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Natwest Group using Natwest Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Natwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Natwest Group's stock price.
Natwest Group Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Natwest Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Natwest. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Natwest Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 9.2597 | Short Percent 0.0003 | Short Ratio 0.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 10.4142 |
Natwest Group PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Natwest Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Natwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Natwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Natwest Group PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Natwest Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Natwest Group.
Natwest Group Implied Volatility | 1.28 |
Natwest Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natwest Group PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natwest Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natwest Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natwest Group's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Natwest Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Natwest because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Natwest Group after-hype prediction price | USD 10.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Natwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Natwest Group PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.08% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Natwest Group trading at USD 10.84, that is roughly USD 0.008672 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Natwest Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Natwest Group PLC options at the current volatility level of 1.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Natwest |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natwest Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natwest Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Natwest Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Natwest Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Natwest Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Natwest Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Natwest Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Natwest Group's historical news coverage. Natwest Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.02 and 12.66, respectively. We have considered Natwest Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Natwest Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Natwest Group PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Natwest Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Natwest Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Natwest Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Natwest Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.80 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.84 | 10.84 | 0.00 |
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Natwest Group Hype Timeline
On the 16th of February 2025 Natwest Group PLC is traded for 10.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Natwest is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Natwest Group is about 387.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.90. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.89. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Natwest Group PLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of August 2024. The firm had 928:1000 split on the 30th of August 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Natwest Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Natwest Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Natwest Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Natwest Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Natwest Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Natwest Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ING | ING Group NV | (0.12) | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.08 | 2.46 | (2.12) | 6.28 | |
| HSBC | HSBC Holdings PLC | 0.31 | 10 per month | 0.46 | 0.34 | 1.55 | (1.46) | 3.94 | |
| SAN | Banco Santander SA | 0.09 | 11 per month | 1.39 | 0.18 | 3.91 | (2.71) | 11.63 | |
| UBS | UBS Group AG | 0.22 | 9 per month | 1.74 | 0.04 | 2.68 | (2.65) | 11.01 | |
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | 0.18 | 9 per month | 1.19 | 0.10 | 3.13 | (2.29) | 8.31 | |
| BCS | Barclays PLC ADR | 0.1 | 9 per month | 1.75 | 0.1 | 2.93 | (2.65) | 13.27 | |
| BAC-PK | Bank of America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.80 | (0.69) | 2.07 | |
| BBVA | Banco Bilbao Viscaya | 0.21 | 10 per month | 1.27 | 0.21 | 4.05 | (2.62) | 8.24 | |
| C | Citigroup | 2.09 | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.22 | 2.45 | (1.42) | 8.05 | |
| RY | Royal Bank of | 1.56 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.11 | (1.54) | 5.83 |
Natwest Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Natwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Natwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Natwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Natwest Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Natwest Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Natwest Group PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natwest Group based on analysis of Natwest Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Natwest Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Natwest Group's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0417 | 0.0844 | 0.076 | 0.0798 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.32 | 1.37 | 1.57 | 1.49 |
Story Coverage note for Natwest Group
The number of cover stories for Natwest Group depends on current market conditions and Natwest Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Natwest Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Natwest Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Natwest Group Short Properties
Natwest Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Natwest Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Natwest Group PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Natwest Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natwest Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 104.5 B |
Complementary Tools for Natwest Stock analysis
When running Natwest Group's price analysis, check to measure Natwest Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natwest Group is operating at the current time. Most of Natwest Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natwest Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natwest Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natwest Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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