Royal Caribbean Cruises Stock Price Prediction
| RCL Stock | USD 241.49 3.92 1.65% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
76
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.154 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.57 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.6735 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.3612 | Wall Street Target Price 231.881 |
Using Royal Caribbean hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Royal Caribbean Cruises from the perspective of Royal Caribbean response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Royal Caribbean's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Royal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Royal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Royal Caribbean Cruises. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Royal Caribbean's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Royal Caribbean.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Royal Caribbean to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Royal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Royal Caribbean after-hype prediction price | USD 241.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Royal |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royal Caribbean's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Royal Caribbean After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Royal Caribbean at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Royal Caribbean or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Royal Caribbean, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Royal Caribbean Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Royal Caribbean's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Royal Caribbean's historical news coverage. Royal Caribbean's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 240.00 and 243.88, respectively. We have considered Royal Caribbean's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Royal Caribbean is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Royal Caribbean Cruises is based on 3 months time horizon.
Royal Caribbean Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Royal Caribbean is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Royal Caribbean backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Royal Caribbean, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 1.94 | 0.45 | 0.65 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
241.49 | 241.94 | 0.19 |
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Royal Caribbean Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November Royal Caribbean Cruises is traded for 241.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.65. Royal is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 241.94 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Royal Caribbean is about 173.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 240.84. The company reported the last year's revenue of 13.9 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.7 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.38 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Royal Caribbean Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Royal Caribbean Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Royal Caribbean's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Royal Caribbean's future price movements. Getting to know how Royal Caribbean's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Royal Caribbean may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCL | Carnival | (0.26) | 10 per month | 0.95 | 0.26 | 6.63 | (2.41) | 11.19 | |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | (0.37) | 7 per month | 2.02 | 0.08 | 3.64 | (1.99) | 13.83 | |
| EXPE | Expedia Group | 0.23 | 7 per month | 0.91 | 0.23 | 3.76 | (1.76) | 7.76 | |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | (6.09) | 10 per month | 0.46 | 0.28 | 2.47 | (1.48) | 6.36 | |
| NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | 0.46 | 12 per month | 1.13 | 0.24 | 6.29 | (2.27) | 13.47 | |
| TRIP | TripAdvisor | (0.67) | 6 per month | 3.18 | (0.05) | 3.12 | (4.39) | 16.78 |
Royal Caribbean Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Royal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Royal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Royal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Royal Caribbean Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Royal Caribbean stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Royal Caribbean Cruises, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Royal Caribbean based on analysis of Royal Caribbean hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Royal Caribbean's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Royal Caribbean's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0184 | 0.0142 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.38 | 1.76 |
Story Coverage note for Royal Caribbean
The number of cover stories for Royal Caribbean depends on current market conditions and Royal Caribbean's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Royal Caribbean is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Royal Caribbean's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Royal Caribbean Short Properties
Royal Caribbean's future price predictability will typically decrease when Royal Caribbean's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Royal Caribbean Cruises often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Royal Caribbean's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royal Caribbean's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 283 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 497 M |
Check out Royal Caribbean Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Caribbean. If investors know Royal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Royal Caribbean listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.154 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 9.97 | Revenue Per Share 62.168 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.175 |
The market value of Royal Caribbean Cruises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Caribbean's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Caribbean's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Royal Caribbean's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Caribbean's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Royal Caribbean's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Royal Caribbean is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Royal Caribbean's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.