Serco Group Plc Stock Price Prediction
| SCGPY Stock | USD 3.30 0.05 1.54% |
Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Serco Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Serco Group PLC from the perspective of Serco Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Serco Group to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Serco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Serco Group after-hype prediction price | USD 3.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Serco |
Serco Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Serco Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Serco Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Serco Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Serco Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Serco Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Serco Group's historical news coverage. Serco Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.17 and 5.43, respectively. We have considered Serco Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Serco Group is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Serco Group PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Serco Group Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Serco Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Serco Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Serco Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
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Serco Group Hype Timeline
Serco Group PLC is at this time traded for 3.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Serco is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Serco Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.30. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Serco Group PLC last dividend was issued on the 8th of September 2022. The entity had 1954:1503 split on the 14th of May 2015. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Serco Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Serco Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Serco Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Serco Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Serco Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Serco Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MITFF | Mitie Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.49 | 0.06 | 6.15 | (4.05) | 21.83 | |
| MITFY | Mitie Group Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | 0.13 | 4.78 | (3.85) | 16.08 | |
| TXHPF | TechnoPro Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TCCPY | TechnoPro Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.60 | (3.94) | 10.28 | |
| TLPFY | Teleperformance PK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.40 | (2.83) | 9.18 | |
| ISFFF | ISS AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.54 | |
| NCTKY | Nabtesco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 9.67 | 0.06 | 26.27 | (21.61) | 77.94 | |
| JSGRY | Lixil Group Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.83 | (5.45) | 16.01 | |
| TLPFF | Teleperformance SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.95 | (0.03) | 3.87 | (3.98) | 11.35 | |
| QRNNF | Aurizon Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.40 |
Serco Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Serco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Serco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Serco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Serco Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Serco Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Serco Group PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Serco Group based on analysis of Serco Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Serco Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Serco Group's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Serco Group
The number of cover stories for Serco Group depends on current market conditions and Serco Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Serco Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Serco Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Serco Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Serco Group's price analysis, check to measure Serco Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Serco Group is operating at the current time. Most of Serco Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Serco Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Serco Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Serco Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.