Smallcap World Fund Price Prediction
| SMCWX Fund | USD 70.65 0.71 1.02% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
64
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Smallcap World hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smallcap World Fund from the perspective of Smallcap World response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Smallcap World to buy its mutual fund at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Smallcap because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell mutual funds at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Smallcap World after-hype prediction price | USD 70.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Smallcap |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smallcap World's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smallcap World After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smallcap World at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smallcap World or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Smallcap World, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smallcap World Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smallcap World's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smallcap World's historical news coverage. Smallcap World's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.80 and 71.48, respectively. We have considered Smallcap World's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smallcap World is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smallcap World is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smallcap World Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Smallcap World is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smallcap World backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smallcap World, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.84 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
70.65 | 70.64 | 0.01 |
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Smallcap World Hype Timeline
Smallcap World is at this time traded for 70.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Smallcap is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 70.64. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Smallcap World is about 21000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.65. The company last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Smallcap World Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Smallcap World Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smallcap World's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smallcap World's future price movements. Getting to know how Smallcap World's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smallcap World may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMECX | Income Fund Of | (0.04) | 2 per month | 0.31 | (0.20) | 0.68 | (0.72) | 1.81 | |
| RNEBX | New World Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.27 | (1.32) | 3.78 | |
| AMFCX | American Mutual Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.42 | (0.10) | 0.90 | (0.88) | 2.68 | |
| AMFFX | American Mutual Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.42 | (0.1) | 0.91 | (0.86) | 2.68 | |
| RNCCX | American Funds Income | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.26 | (0.33) | 0.52 | (0.52) | 1.32 | |
| FPPPX | American Funds Preservation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.89) | 0.21 | (0.21) | 0.84 | |
| AMEFX | Income Fund Of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.33 | (0.20) | 0.68 | (0.73) | 1.81 | |
| RNGGX | New Economy Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | (0.05) | 1.46 | (1.96) | 4.07 | |
| RNGFX | New Economy Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.97 | (0.05) | 1.47 | (1.97) | 4.06 | |
| RNGHX | New Economy Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | (0.05) | 1.47 | (1.97) | 4.07 |
Smallcap World Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smallcap price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smallcap using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smallcap charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Smallcap World Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Smallcap World stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Smallcap World Fund, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Smallcap World based on analysis of Smallcap World hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Smallcap World's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Smallcap World's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Smallcap World
The number of cover stories for Smallcap World depends on current market conditions and Smallcap World's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smallcap World is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smallcap World's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Smallcap Mutual Fund
Smallcap World financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smallcap Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smallcap with respect to the benefits of owning Smallcap World security.
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