Tilray Inc Stock Price Prediction
| TLRY Stock | USD 9.72 0.69 7.64% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0219 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.27) | Wall Street Target Price 16.1667 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.047 |
Using Tilray hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tilray Inc from the perspective of Tilray response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tilray using Tilray's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tilray using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tilray's stock price.
Tilray Short Interest
An investor who is long Tilray may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Tilray and may potentially protect profits, hedge Tilray with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.7067 | Short Percent 0.1636 | Short Ratio 1.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 110.3 M | 50 Day MA 10.9466 |
Tilray Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Tilray's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Tilray. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tilray can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tilray Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Tilray's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Tilray.
Tilray Implied Volatility | 1.14 |
Tilray's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tilray Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tilray's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tilray stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tilray's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Tilray to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Tilray because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Tilray after-hype prediction price | USD 9.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tilray contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tilray Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0712% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Tilray trading at USD 9.72, that is roughly USD 0.006926 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tilray's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tilray Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.14%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Tilray Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Tilray After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tilray at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tilray or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tilray, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tilray Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tilray's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tilray's historical news coverage. Tilray's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.41 and 19.17, respectively. We have considered Tilray's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tilray is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tilray Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tilray Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tilray is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tilray backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tilray, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 9.38 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.72 | 9.79 | 0.72 |
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Tilray Hype Timeline
Tilray Inc is at this time traded for 9.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. Tilray is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.79 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.72%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Tilray is about 2356.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.88. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.13 B. Net Loss for the year was (3 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 239.77 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Tilray Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Tilray Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tilray's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tilray's future price movements. Getting to know how Tilray's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tilray may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVO | Evotec SE ADR | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.58 | (4.20) | 19.20 | |
| ALVO | Alvotech | 0.18 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.89 | (5.51) | 40.90 | |
| HROW | Harrow Health | 0.09 | 9 per month | 3.42 | 0.01 | 6.42 | (5.16) | 21.38 | |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health | 0.31 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.97 | (4.40) | 12.56 | |
| NEOG | Neogen | (0.09) | 10 per month | 2.99 | 0.08 | 5.96 | (5.91) | 27.41 | |
| DVAX | Dynavax Technologies | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.15 | 3.52 | (1.80) | 38.25 | |
| AMPH | Amphastar P | (0.38) | 8 per month | 2.29 | (0.02) | 3.67 | (3.89) | 13.94 | |
| IMNM | Immunome | 1.02 | 10 per month | 3.78 | 0.17 | 13.34 | (5.28) | 32.16 | |
| MAZE | Maze Therapeutics Common | 2.13 | 8 per month | 2.39 | 0.19 | 6.61 | (4.62) | 16.60 | |
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics | 0.83 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 11.23 | (8.86) | 61.94 |
Tilray Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tilray price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tilray using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tilray charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Tilray Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Tilray stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Tilray Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tilray based on analysis of Tilray hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Tilray's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Tilray's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Interest Debt Per Share | 8.01 | 5.7 | 0.006224 | 0.005912 | Revenue Per Share | 14.48 | 12.66 | 11.39 | 8.15 |
Story Coverage note for Tilray
The number of cover stories for Tilray depends on current market conditions and Tilray's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tilray is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tilray's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tilray Short Properties
Tilray's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tilray's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tilray Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tilray's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tilray's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 351.8 M |
Additional Tools for Tilray Stock Analysis
When running Tilray's price analysis, check to measure Tilray's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tilray is operating at the current time. Most of Tilray's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tilray's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tilray's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tilray to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.