ARCH CAP GROUP Price Patterns
| 03938JAA7 | 93.73 2.68 2.78% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using 03938JAA7 hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ARCH CAP GROUP from the perspective of 03938JAA7 response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in 03938JAA7 to buy its bond at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying 03938JAA7 because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell bonds at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
03938JAA7 after-hype prediction price | $ 93.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as bond price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
03938JAA7 |
03938JAA7 After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of 03938JAA7 at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 03938JAA7 or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Bond prices, such as prices of 03938JAA7, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
03938JAA7 Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting 03938JAA7's bond value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 03938JAA7's historical news coverage. 03938JAA7's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.40 and 95.06, respectively. We have considered 03938JAA7's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
03938JAA7 is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ARCH CAP GROUP is based on 3 months time horizon.
03938JAA7 Bond Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Corporate Bond such as 03938JAA7 is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 03938JAA7 backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Bond price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 03938JAA7, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
93.73 | 93.73 | 0.00 |
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03938JAA7 Hype Timeline
ARCH CAP GROUP is at this time traded for 93.73. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.34. 03938JAA7 is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on 03938JAA7 is about 50.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.07. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out 03938JAA7 Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.03938JAA7 Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to 03938JAA7's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 03938JAA7's future price movements. Getting to know how 03938JAA7's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 03938JAA7 may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 00108WAF7 | AEP TEX INC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.23 | 0.01 | 3.89 | (5.14) | 12.47 | |
| TBBB | BBB Foods | (0.29) | 7 per month | 2.32 | 0.17 | 4.52 | (3.54) | 13.34 | |
| PSA | Public Storage | 2.68 | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.07 | 2.84 | (1.97) | 6.57 | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C | 18.13 | 6 per month | 1.38 | 0.01 | 2.82 | (2.48) | 9.42 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | 2.65 | 8 per month | 1.10 | 0.13 | 2.54 | (1.98) | 7.63 | |
| CRGGF | China Resources Gas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.35 | |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corp | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.13 | 2.92 | (2.26) | 9.30 | |
| AAL | American Airlines Group | 0.16 | 7 per month | 2.46 | 0.01 | 3.76 | (4.06) | 12.59 | |
| ITOCY | Itochu Corp ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.12 | 3.36 | (2.14) | 7.55 |
03938JAA7 Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 03938JAA7 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 03938JAA7 using various technical indicators. When you analyze 03938JAA7 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About 03938JAA7 Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of 03938JAA7 stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ARCH CAP GROUP, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of 03938JAA7 based on analysis of 03938JAA7 hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to 03938JAA7's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to 03938JAA7's related companies.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in 03938JAA7 Bond
03938JAA7 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 03938JAA7 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 03938JAA7 with respect to the benefits of owning 03938JAA7 security.