First Trust Water ETF Technical Analysis
| FIW ETF | USD 107.19 1.55 1.47% |
As of the 1st of May, shares of First Trust change hands at 107.19 per share. Momentum and volatility readings indicate Mean Deviation of 0.8682, standard deviation of 1.1, and Variance of 1.21. The system measures statistical relationships between price fluctuations and trading activity. Indicator values are assessed relative to historical performance bands.
First Trust Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as First, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to FirstFirst |
Investors evaluate First Trust Water using market price and NAV, each describing a different view of the fund. ETF assessment draws on expense ratio, liquidity, bid-ask spread, and how effectively the fund replicates its target exposure.
For First Trust, NAV and trading price are complementary but distinct concepts shaped by different forces. Fund-level metrics such as tracking difference and expense ratio add depth to the analysis.
What-If Analysis
Historical what-if analysis for First Trust Water is useful because it converts abstract timing questions into a structured review of past performance under changing entry and holding periods. In practice, this review provides context for deciding whether First Trust's historical reward profile was stable enough to support the current thesis.
| 01/31/2026 |
| 05/01/2026 |
Investing 0.00 in First Trust starting January 31, 2026 and holding to today would realize 0.00 in total gains. This translates to a 0.0% net return in First Trust on balance across 90 trading days. First Trust has comparable peers such as First Trust, FlexShares Morningstar, Virtus InfraCap, IShares Cohen, Nuveen ESG, IShares Russell, and IShares Financial. The fund will normally invest at least 90 percent of its net assets in the common stocks and depositary receipts that co... More
First Trust Upside and Downside Indicators Summary
These indicators describe how First Trust momentum evolves across recent price ranges. Momentum balance — whether buying or selling pressure dominates — is the central signal.
| Information Ratio | -0.10 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | -1.79 | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.66 |
Volatility and Risk Indicators for First Trust Signals
Risk measures here provide context on First Trust's return distribution and drawdown behavior. Higher annualized volatility implies wider expected return ranges over any given holding period.| Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.07 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | -0.11 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | -0.11 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | -0.10 |
The mean reversion principle applied to First Trust's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Identifying the root cause of First Trust's price dislocation is essential before acting on a mean reversion signal. The mean reversion tendency in First Trust's price is a well-documented phenomenon in academic research. In many cases, First Trust's price extremes present statistical patterns that have recurred historically.
Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.07 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.09 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.8682 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | -1,267 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.10 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | -0.11 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | -0.11 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | -0.10 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | -1.79 | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.66 | |||
| Skewness | 0.2206 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.1366 |
First Trust Water Backtested Returns
First Trust presents a very low volatility profile within the defined horizon. It maintains a Sharpe Ratio of -0.0752, illustrating dispersion-adjusted losses. We identified twenty-three technical indicators influencing the company's volatility profile. Please review metrics such as mean deviation of 0.8682, standard deviation of 1.1, and Variance of 1.21 to review dispersion measures. The ETF owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.96, which attests to generally lower market sensitivity than the broad market. First Trust tracks the broader market closely, rising and falling roughly in step with the benchmark.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
First Trust Water exhibits good reverse predictability. Autocorrelation measures the degree of predictability between First Trust time series from 31st of January 2026 to 17th of March 2026 and from 17th of March 2026 to 1st of May 2026. Persistent correlation between intervals suggests underlying momentum patterns in First Trust that may carry forward. The measured coefficient of -0.55 means about 55.0% of First Trust's recent price variance traces back to prior period behavior. Given that First Trust Water has negative autocorrelation for the selected time horizon, market participants may evaluate potential contrarian price behavior over comparable future intervals.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.13 |
This technical view for First Trust centers on price movement and volume signals. Common inputs include moving averages, RSI, and price-based signals.
Technical Analysis
This analysis covers twenty-five data points across the selected time horizon. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of First Trust Water volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
Technical Analysis Methodology & Indicators
Technical analysis of First Trust evaluates traded price structure, volume, and spread stability relative to NAV behavior. Volatility compression can precede expansion in dispersion regimes.
First Trust Water data is compiled from fund disclosures and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
First Trust Technical Indicators
Technical indicators tied to First Trust Water help investors translate chart behavior into a more structured framework for entry, exit, and risk control. This is informative when the goal is to compare trend quality, momentum, and mean-reversion risk before acting.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.07 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.09 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.8682 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | -1,267 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.10 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | -0.11 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | -0.11 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | -0.10 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | -1.79 | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.66 | |||
| Skewness | 0.2206 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.1366 |
First Trust Water One Year Return
Based on the recorded statements, First Trust Water has an One Year Return of 5.7%. This is 37.5% lower than that of the First Trust family and about the same as Natural Resources (which currently averages 0.0) category. The one year return for all United States etfs is notably lower than that of the ETF.
Although One Year Fund Return reflects overall fund short-term performance, it is recommended to look at mid and long term return measure before selecting a particular fund or ETF. The great way to validate fund short-term performance is to compare it with other similar funds or ETFs for the same 12 months interval.May 1, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Technical indicators tied to First Trust Water help investors translate chart behavior into a more structured framework for entry, exit, and risk control. This is informative when the goal is to compare trend quality, momentum, and mean-reversion risk before acting.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.01 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.63 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | ||
| Day Median Price | 106.77 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 106.91 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.20 | ||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.95 |