Murphy USA Stock Technical Analysis
| MUSA Stock | USD 604.52 11.71 1.98% |
As of the 5th of May, Murphy USA indicates a price level of 604.52 per share. Price-based signals reflect Mean Deviation of 2.11, risk adjusted performance of 0.1689, and Downside Deviation of 3.42. The model quantifies price stability and directional movement. Relative volatility positioning is benchmarked against peers.
Murphy USA Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Murphy USA, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to Murphy USAMurphy USA |
Book value captures Murphy USA accounting equity, while market value captures the collective view of participants. Murphy USA's market capitalization is 10.95 billion. Murphy USA P/B of 16.74 reflects a market valuation far exceeding accounting equity. Enterprise value (TTM) stands at 13.6 billion. Intrinsic value provides a third perspective, grounded in fundamentals rather than accounting convention or market sentiment.
Murphy USA's value is shaped by fundamental inputs, whereas price is shaped by supply and demand dynamics. For Murphy USA, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 24.07, a P/B ratio of 16.74, a profit margin of 3.2%, and ROE of 80.35%.
What-If Analysis
What-if analysis for Murphy USA is essentially a historical sensitivity test that shows how changes in the investment horizon could have altered realized return, drawdown, and timing outcomes. This becomes more informative when investors use the backtest to challenge timing assumptions rather than to search for a perfect historical entry point.
| 02/04/2026 |
| 05/05/2026 |
Starting with 0.00 in Murphy USA on February 4, 2026 and exiting today would gain 0.00 in total return. Overall, this is a 0.0% total return in Murphy USA in total over 90 days. Related stock peers for Murphy USA include Miniso Group, Mohawk Industries, Vipshop Holdings, AutoNation, Birkenstock Holding, Churchill Downs, and Etsy. Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise More
Murphy USA Upside and Downside Indicators Snapshot
The momentum profile for Murphy USA describes how price movement distributes across upside and downside channels. Current price is compared to recent trend direction and momentum readings.
| Downside Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1672 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.99 | |||
| Value At Risk | -5.09 | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.83 |
Volatility and Risk Indicators for Murphy USA Signals
Murphy USA's risk profile is reflected through volatility and return variability measures. Risk metrics across 30-day, 90-day, and annual windows reveal whether volatility is expanding or contracting.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1689 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.526 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.572 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.159 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | -1.01 |
The mean reversion principle applied to Murphy USA's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Identifying the root cause of Murphy USA's price dislocation is essential before acting on a mean reversion signal.
Technical Indicators
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| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1689 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -1.00 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 600.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Variance | 10.59 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1672 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.526 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.572 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.159 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | -1.01 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.99 | |||
| Value At Risk | -5.09 | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.22 | |||
| Skewness | 0.3839 | |||
| Kurtosis | 6.1 |
Murphy USA Backtested Returns
Murphy USA posts a very low volatility profile during the defined timeframe. It has a Sharpe Ratio of 0.17, evidencing risk-calibrated returns. We identified twenty-nine technical indicators influencing the company's volatility profile. Please review metrics such as mean deviation of 2.11, risk-adjusted performance of 0.1689, and Downside Deviation of 3.42 to examine volatility dispersion. On a scale of 0 to 100, Murphy USA holds a performance score of 13. The company maintains a Market Sensitivity (Beta) of -0.52, which means generally lower market sensitivity than the broad market. Returns on Murphy USA tend to move against the broader market, though the counter-movement is modest relative to the index.
Auto-correlation | 0.69 |
Good predictability
Murphy USA exhibits good predictability. Autocorrelation measures the degree of predictability between Murphy USA time series from 4th of February 2026 to 21st of March 2026 and from 21st of March 2026 to 5th of May 2026. Persistent correlation between intervals suggests underlying momentum patterns in Murphy USA that may carry forward. The measured coefficient of 0.69 means around 69.0% of Murphy USA's recent price variance traces back to prior period behavior.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1236.1 |
Murphy USA is evaluated through observed price and volume patterns. Key inputs include moving averages and strength indicators.
Technical Analysis
This analysis covers thirty-seven data points across the selected time horizon. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of Murphy USA volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
Technical Analysis Methodology & Indicators
Technical analysis of Murphy USA evaluates price structure, momentum, and volatility clustering. Technical signals complement fundamental exposure context. Murphy USA has a market cap of 10.95 billion, P/E of 24.07, ROE of 80.35%.
Murphy USA metrics are compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized before display.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Technical Indicators
A technical review of Murphy USA can improve timing discipline by comparing momentum, reversal risk, and confirmation signals across several time horizons. This is informative when the goal is to compare trend quality, momentum, and mean-reversion risk before acting.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1689 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -1.00 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 600.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Variance | 10.59 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1672 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.526 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.572 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.159 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | -1.01 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.99 | |||
| Value At Risk | -5.09 | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.22 | |||
| Skewness | 0.3839 | |||
| Kurtosis | 6.1 |
May 5, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
A technical review of Murphy USA can improve timing discipline by comparing momentum, reversal risk, and confirmation signals across several time horizons. This is informative when the goal is to compare trend quality, momentum, and mean-reversion risk before acting.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5,416 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.93 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | ||
| Day Median Price | 598.95 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 600.81 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 11.42 |
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