Ideaya Biosciences Valuation Analysis
| IDYA Stock | USD 28.32 0.08 0.28% |
Below Model Estimate
Today
The intrinsic value estimate for Ideaya Biosciences is based on a 3 months horizon. Negative profit margins (-62.17%) signal ongoing profitability risk influencing market valuation. Extending the time horizon generally improves valuation stability.
The valuation of Ideaya Biosciences is tested here against earnings multiples, cash-flow models, and asset-based benchmarks. Cross-checking more than one valuation method usually gives a more reliable estimate than relying on a single framework.
Main Profitability Drivers
Ideaya Biosciences' net margin stands at -55.00%, with operating margin at -76.00%. With the net margin at or above the operating margin, Ideaya Biosciences benefits from non-operating income or favorable tax treatment. Revenue of $218.71 million translated into -$114.27 million of gross profit for Ideaya Biosciences, with net income reaching -$113.7 million. With ROE at -11.00% and ROA at -11.00%, these return measures help contextualize Ideaya Biosciences' profitability relative to its balance sheet. Ideaya Biosciences' profitability trends show broad deterioration, with the majority of key metrics declining year over year. To dig further into these trends, see Ideaya Biosciences' detailed margin analysis to evaluate margin sustainability.
Price Book 2.48 | Gross Profit | Price Sales 11.01 | Profit Margin | Enterprise Value Revenue 8.81 |
Ideaya Biosciences Cash | $79.14 million |
Cash stood at $112.83 million as of December 31, 2025.
Ideaya Biosciences operates as a biotechnology company where value is driven by research pipelines, clinical outcomes, and regulatory approvals, forming the primary lens for valuation. Classified as a turnaround stock in Biotechnology, negative margins indicate the investment case rests on restoring operational profitability. Enterprise value, leverage, and operating performance are compared below to identify where current pricing aligns with fundamentals and where it diverges.
Total Value Analysis
The current total-value analysis for Ideaya Biosciences points to enterprise value near 1.93 billion, market capitalization around 2.48 billion, debt of 27.91 million, and cash and liquid equivalents of 268.62 million as of latest reporting. Enterprise value captures what an acquirer would pay for the operating business, making it more useful than market cap alone when debt is material.| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash & Equivalents |
1.93 billion | 2.48 billion | 27.91 million | 268.62 million |
Investor Information
About 98.0% of IDYA shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of IDYA was currently reported as 11.65. IDYA reported a loss per share of 1.57. Ideaya Biosciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. Ideaya Biosciences shows pressured financial positioning across liquidity, leverage, and earnings quality. The earnings picture reflects near-term margin compression relative to deployed assets.Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Ideaya Biosciences has an asset utilization ratio of 19.72 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.2 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Ideaya Biosciences is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Macro event markers
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Ideaya Biosciences's custom levered DCF lands near -151.78 per share compared with market pricing around 28.32, leaving the stock above the modeled value. The market is pricing the shares around 635.9% over the model estimate. The setup uses a WACC of 4.95% and a long-term growth rate of 2.0%, with next-period free cash flow around -452.88 Million. Net debt is about -84.91 Million and the terminal value makes up roughly 89.1% of enterprise value. Large divergence between model-derived values and market price indicates high sensitivity to long-term assumptions, particularly around margins, growth, and discount rates. With 89.1% of enterprise value derived from terminal projections, small changes in growth or discount rate inputs can materially alter the output.Model Value / Share
-151.78
Equity value per share from the current custom levered DCF summary row.
Market Price
28.32
Current market price used by the same scenario.
Model Premium
635.9%
Market price sits above the model output.
WACC / LT Growth
4.95% / 2.0%
Forecast horizon: 2021 to 2030Terminal value share of EV: 89.1%
Ideaya Market Price vs. Intrinsic Value
This chart compares observed market pricing with the model-derived equity value per share across forecast periods. It also illustrates the relative premium or discount, expressed as a percentage difference between market valuation and modeled intrinsic value.
Projected Revenue and Levered Free Cash Flow
Revenue and levered free cash flow projections are presented in billions, outlining the expected financial trajectory over the modeled horizon.
Key Model Assumptions
The inputs below reflect the core assumptions applied in the valuation model, including growth expectations, discount rates, and capital structure considerations.
| Input | Current Value |
|---|---|
| Weighted Average Cost of Capital | 4.95% |
| Long-Term Growth Rate | 2.0% |
| Cost of Equity | 4.96% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.02% |
| Debt Weighting | 1.10% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.90% |
| Net Debt | -84.91 million |
| Enterprise Value | -13.52 billion |
| Present Terminal Value | -12.04 billion |
| Terminal Value Share of EV | 89.1% |
Forecast Detail and Valuation Progression
This table presents the underlying forecast data used in the valuation, including revenue, cash flow generation, discounting effects, and the resulting per-share value across each projected period.
| Year | Revenue | Revenue Growth | Free Cash Flow | PV of LFCF | Equity Value / Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27.94 million | 0.00% | -58.42 million | 0 | -151.78 |
| 2022 | 50.93 million | 82.28% | -90.62 million | 0 | -151.78 |
| 2023 | 23.39 million | -54.08% | -117.59 million | 0 | -151.78 |
| 2024 | 7 million | -70.07% | -251.44 million | 0 | -151.78 |
| 2025 | 218.71 million | 3,024.43% | -73.47 million | 0 | -151.78 |
| 2026 | 250.49 million | 14.53% | -258.03 million | -245.85 million | -151.78 |
| 2027 | 286.9 million | 14.53% | -295.53 million | -268.29 million | -151.78 |
| 2028 | 328.59 million | 14.53% | -338.47 million | -292.77 million | -151.78 |
| 2029 | 376.34 million | 14.53% | -387.66 million | -319.49 million | -151.78 |
| 2030 | 431.03 million | 14.53% | -444 million | -348.65 million | -151.78 |
Profitability Analysis
Based on Ideaya Biosciences' financial statements, Ideaya Biosciences is currently operating at a loss, with net income of -113.7 million. The net profit margin is -55.0% and operating margin is -76.0%, with return on equity at -11.0%. Profitability is deteriorating broadly, with margin and return metrics declining across multiple levels of the income statement.Net Loss | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter -83.27 million | Current Value -98.54 million | Quarterly Volatility 40.34 million |
Macro event markers
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 94.00% | 97.90% |
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The profitability picture for Ideaya Biosciences starts with how effectively revenue converts to earnings. Both net and operating margins are negative (-55.0% and -76.0% respectively), indicating the business is consuming more capital than it generates at current revenue levels. The data below separates structural profitability from one-time items and cyclical effects. Ideaya Biosciences reports return on equity of -11.0%, reflecting negative returns on shareholder capital.
Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
Analyst consensus on Ideaya Biosciences' EPS captures the range of professional forecasts and their trajectory over time. An operating margin of -76.0% frames the cost structure behind Ideaya Biosciences' reported EPS. Projected earnings per share for Ideaya Biosciences anchor the market's pricing of near-term earnings power. Consensus estimates may not capture non-recurring items or stock-compensation effects, so testing against the current net margin profile (-55.0%), guidance revisions, and prior forecast error adds precision. Ideaya Biosciences reported estimated earnings of -1.0523 in earnings per share on 30th of June 2026. Revisions to EPS estimates — direction and magnitude — often move valuation multiples before the actual report date.Macro event markers
Earnings Estimation Breakdown
18 analysts contribute to the current consensus. The last reported EPS was -1.11 as of 31st of March 2026.
Last Reported EPS
-1.27
Lowest
-1.0523
Expected EPS
-0.7473
Highest
Analyst estimate range around the current expected EPS projection.
Earnings Projection Consensus
| Number of Analysts | Historical Accuracy | Last Reported EPS | Estimated EPS for 30th of June 2026 | Current EPS (TTM) | |
| 18 | 66.87% | -1.11 | -1.0523 | -1.57 |
Ownership Allocation
The majority of Ideaya Biosciences' outstanding shares are owned by institutional holders. Institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds, and asset managers typically hold large positions as part of their investment mandates, managing money on behalf of clients or beneficiaries. As a result, they are subject to reporting requirements and oversight rules - such as 13F filings and position disclosure thresholds - that do not apply to individual retail investors.Revenue and Profit Overview
IDYA reported previous year's revenue of $218.71 million. Net Loss for the year was -$113.7 million with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of -$114.27 million.Reading the Current Signals
Negative margins at Ideaya Biosciences point to cost pressures outpacing revenue. In technology hardware and services companies, this condition is structural rather than transient - until operating economics stabilize, earnings-based valuation metrics are less informative. Ideaya Biosciences carries minimal debt at 0.02, more financial cushion than many comparable companies - relevant during periods of heightened market volatility.
Overall Interpretation
Across the key valuation dimensions, Ideaya Biosciences presents a business currently operating below profitability breakeven, where operating costs tied to the underlying business model outpace revenue within Biotechnology. Negative margins are the dominant signal - the business is consuming more capital than it generates, making traditional valuation multiples unreliable. For technology hardware and services companies, this is a direct consequence of the underlying cost structure and the sensitivity of profitability to volume and pricing. At current levels, Ideaya Biosciences's valuation reflects an earnings profile that has not yet stabilized. For the market to reprice this business more constructively, revenue growth, margin trajectory, and product cycle dynamics would need to demonstrate sustained improvement.
Each of the valuation dimensions above captures a different angle on Ideaya Biosciences, and their combined signal matters more than any single metric. With margins currently negative, the critical question is whether the path to profitability is supported by revenue trends and cost discipline.
Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions
Ideaya Biosciences is a mid-cap equity in Biotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences, Health Care categories. Valuation integrates earnings durability and capital efficiency. Certain defensive traits may reduce sensitivity to broader macroeconomic fluctuations. For Ideaya Biosciences, the leading valuation metrics are enterprise value (TTM) of 1.93 billion; additional context comes from P/B of 2.48, P/S of 11.01.
Ideaya Biosciences analytics rely on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with quality checks and normalization applied. Sell-side coverage, where present, supplements the data shown. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.
The analysis above is generated by quantitative models and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for full details.
Financial data referenced in this analysis is derived from publicly available SEC filings, audited financial statements, and third-party market data providers. The intrinsic value estimate is generated by Macroaxis quantitative models that incorporate fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and risk metrics.
The methodology combines multiple analytical inputs:
- Fundamental analysis - financial statements, profitability ratios, debt structure, and cash flow metrics sourced from SEC filings and public financial reports
- Technical indicators - historical price patterns, momentum signals, and volatility measures
- Risk assessment - probability of bankruptcy models, market risk metrics, and downside scenario analysis
- Peer comparison - relative valuation against industry peers using standardized multiples
Model outputs are refreshed periodically as new financial data becomes available. Past model performance is not indicative of future results. The intrinsic value estimate reflects a point-in-time calculation and should be considered alongside other research and professional advice.
Data sourced from SEC filings (EDGAR), public financial statements, and market data providers.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Ellen Johnson, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Growth Indicators
Reviewing growth indicators for Ideaya Biosciences is especially important when the thesis depends on margin repair or cyclical recovery rather than already-established compounding. That usually means separating cyclical rebound from durable compounding and checking whether better growth is being matched by healthier margins and cash generation.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 88.49 million | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 10.4275 |
Ideaya Biosciences Current Valuation Indicators
A net-worth review of Ideaya Biosciences links market cap to balance-sheet health, cash flow, and implied growth expectations. Earnings multiples, cash-flow yields, and asset-based measures work best as a group rather than in isolation. Reported values are derived from company filings, audited financial statements, and market data, and are standardized within Macroaxis quantitative models for consistency. Model outputs reflect a point-in-time estimate based on available data and assumptions and should be interpreted alongside changes in operating performance, market conditions, and forward expectations.