Origin Energy Valuation

ORG Stock   10.69  0.07  0.65%   
At this time, the company appears to be overvalued. Origin Energy holds a recent Real Value of USD8.79 per share. The prevailing price of the company is USD10.69. Our model determines the value of Origin Energy from analyzing the company fundamentals such as Operating Margin of 0.03 %, shares outstanding of 1.72 B, and Return On Equity of 0.15 as well as examining its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy.
Overvalued
Today
10.69
Please note that Origin Energy's price fluctuation is not too volatile at this time. Calculation of the real value of Origin Energy is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Origin Energy's time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
Origin Energy's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price of 10.69, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  10.69 Real  8.79 Hype  10.69 Naive  10.73
The intrinsic value of Origin Energy's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence Origin Energy's stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
8.79
Real Value
11.76
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Origin Energy helps investors to forecast how Origin stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Origin Energy more accurately as focusing exclusively on Origin Energy's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.2210.1511.08
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.5810.6911.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.6210.7311.84
Details

Origin Energy Total Value Analysis

Origin Energy is now forecasted to have takeover price of 20.54 B with market capitalization of 18.83 B, debt of 3.38 B, and cash on hands of 463 M. Please note that takeover price may be misleading and is a subject to mistakes in financial statements. We encourage investors to thoroughly investigate all of the Origin Energy fundamentals before making investing decisions based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
20.54 B
18.83 B
3.38 B
463 M

Origin Energy Investor Information

About 45.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.95. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Origin Energy last dividend was issued on the 5th of September 2024. The entity had 1.0299:1 split on the 24th of February 2005. Based on the key measurements obtained from Origin Energy's financial statements, Origin Energy is not in a good financial situation at the moment. It has a very high risk of going through financial straits in December.

Origin Energy Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Origin Energy has an asset utilization ratio of 79.12 percent. This implies that the Company is making USD0.79 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Origin Energy is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.

Origin Energy Ownership Allocation

Origin Energy owns a total of 1.72 Billion outstanding shares. 30% of Origin Energy outstanding shares are owned by third-party entities. Institutional investors are typically referred to investors that purchase positions in a given stock to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutional investors are subject to different rules and regulations than regular investors. Please look out for any change in current institutional holding as this could mean something significant has changed at the company or is about to change. Please note that no matter how many assets the company maintains, if the real value of the company is less than the current market value, you may not be able to make money on it.

Origin Energy Profitability Analysis

The company reported the revenue of 16.18 B. Net Income was 1.4 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 297 M.

About Origin Energy Valuation

The stock valuation mechanism determines Origin Energy's current worth on a daily basis. In general, an absolute valuation approach attempts to find the value of Origin Energy based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Origin Energy. We calculate exposure to Origin Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Origin Energy's related companies.

Additional Tools for Origin Stock Analysis

When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.