Moderate Duration Fund Volatility
| AIFBXDelisted Fund | USD 9.84 0.00 0.00% |
We have found seventeen technical indicators for Moderate Duration, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Moderate Duration's Standard Deviation of 0.1795, risk adjusted performance of 0.1008, and Mean Deviation of 0.0735 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0%. Key indicators related to Moderate Duration's volatility include:
690 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 690 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Moderate Duration Mutual Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Moderate daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Moderate's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Moderate Duration volatility.
Moderate |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game with Moderate Duration. They may decide to buy additional shares of Moderate Duration at lower prices to lower the average cost per share, thereby improving their portfolio's performance when markets normalize.
Moving together with Moderate Mutual Fund
Moderate Duration Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Moderate Duration's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Moderate mutual fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Moderate mutual fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Moderate Duration's beta of -0.0705 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Moderate Duration mutual fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Moderate Duration Fund exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 3.46 and kurtosis of 18.92. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Moderate Duration's mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Moderate Duration's mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Moderate Duration Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Moderate Duration correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Moderate Beta |
Moderate standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 0.0 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Moderate Duration's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Moderate Duration's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in moderate mutual fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Moderate Duration.
Moderate Duration Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Moderate Duration fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Moderate Duration's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Moderate Duration's mutual fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A mutual fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Moderate Duration's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Moderate Duration's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Moderate Duration's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the mutual fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Moderate Duration's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Moderate Duration's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
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Moderate Duration Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon Moderate Duration Fund has a beta of -0.0705 . This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Moderate Duration are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Moderate Duration Fund is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Moderate Duration or Cavanal Hill funds sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Moderate Duration's price will be affected by overall mutual fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Moderate fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Moderate Duration Fund has an alpha of 0.0294, implying that it can generate a 0.0294 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Moderate Duration Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Moderate Duration Mutual Fund Return Volatility
Moderate Duration historical daily return volatility represents how much of Moderate Duration fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund shows 0.0% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7444% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Moderate Duration Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Moderate Duration or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Moderate Duration may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Moderate's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Moderate Duration and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Moderate Duration fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.The fund invests primarily in debt obligations such as bonds, notes and debentures, and bills issued by U.S. corporations or the U.S. government, its agencies, or instrumentalities, municipal securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations and fixed income ETFs. Cavanal Hill is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.
Moderate Duration's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Moderate Mutual Fund over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Moderate Duration's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Moderate Duration's volatility to invest better
Higher Moderate Duration's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Moderate Duration fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Moderate Duration fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Moderate Duration investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Moderate Duration's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Moderate Duration's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Moderate Duration Investment Opportunity
Dow Jones Industrial has a standard deviation of returns of 0.74 and is 9.223372036854776E16 times more volatile than Moderate Duration Fund. 0 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Moderate Duration. You can use Moderate Duration Fund to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The mutual fund experiences a normal downward trend, but the immediate impact on correlations cannot be determined at the moment . Check odds of Moderate Duration to be traded at $9.74 in 90 days.Very good diversification
The correlation between Moderate Duration Fund and DJI is -0.3 (i.e., Very good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Moderate Duration Fund and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Moderate Duration Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moderate Duration's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moderate Duration's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Moderate Duration mutual fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1008 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.29) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.0735 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 573.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1795 | |||
| Variance | 0.0322 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential mutual funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Moderate Duration Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Moderate Duration as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Moderate Duration's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Moderate Duration's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Moderate Duration Fund.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Other Consideration for investing in Moderate Mutual Fund
If you are still planning to invest in Moderate Duration check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Moderate Duration's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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