Alfa SAB (Mexico) Volatility
| ALFAA Stock | MXN 14.61 0.15 1.02% |
Alfa SAB appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Alfa SAB de secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the company had a 0.16% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By analyzing Alfa SAB's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.51% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Alfa SAB's risk adjusted performance of 0.1162, and Mean Deviation of 2.0 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. Key indicators related to Alfa SAB's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Alfa SAB Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Alfa daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Alfa's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Alfa SAB volatility.
Alfa |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Alfa SAB can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Alfa SAB at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Alfa stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Alfa SAB's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against Alfa Stock
Alfa SAB Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Alfa SAB's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Alfa stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Alfa stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Alfa SAB's beta of 0.45 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Alfa SAB stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Alfa SAB de has relatively low volatility with skewness of 3.08 and kurtosis of 15.47. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alfa SAB's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alfa SAB's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Alfa SAB de Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Alfa SAB correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Alfa Beta |
Alfa standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 3.17 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Alfa SAB's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Alfa SAB's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in alfa stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Alfa SAB.
Alfa SAB de Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Alfa SAB stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Alfa SAB's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Alfa SAB's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Alfa SAB's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Alfa SAB's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Alfa SAB's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Alfa SAB's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Alfa SAB's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Alfa SAB de Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Alfa SAB Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alfa SAB has a beta of 0.4509 . This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alfa SAB average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alfa SAB de will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alfa SAB or Industrial Conglomerates sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alfa SAB's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alfa stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Alfa SAB de has an alpha of 0.3966, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
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What Drives an Alfa SAB Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Alfa SAB Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Alfa SAB is 622.01. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 10.04 and standard deviation of 3.17. The mean deviation of Alfa SAB de is currently at 1.95. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.76
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Alfa SAB Stock Return Volatility
Alfa SAB historical daily return volatility represents how much of Alfa SAB stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm accepts 3.1692% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7608% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Alfa SAB Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Alfa SAB or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Alfa SAB may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Alfa's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Alfa SAB and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Alfa SAB fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.Alfa, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the petrochemicals and synthetic fibers, refrigerated foods, telecommunications, and natural gas and hydrocarbons businesses in Mexico, the United States, Canada, Central America, Europe, and internationally. Alfa, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1974 and is based in San Pedro Garza Garca, Mexico. ALFA S operates under Conglomerates classification in Mexico and is traded on Mexico Stock Exchange. It employs 56899 people.
Alfa SAB's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Alfa Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Alfa SAB's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Alfa SAB's volatility to invest better
Higher Alfa SAB's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Alfa SAB de stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Alfa SAB de stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Alfa SAB de investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Alfa SAB's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Alfa SAB's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Alfa SAB Investment Opportunity
Alfa SAB de has a volatility of 3.17 and is 4.17 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Alfa SAB de is lower than 28 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Alfa SAB de to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a somewhat bearish sentiment, but the market may correct it shortly. Check odds of Alfa SAB to be traded at 14.17 in 90 days.Average diversification
The correlation between Alfa SAB de and DJI is 0.11 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Alfa SAB de and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Alfa SAB Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alfa SAB's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alfa SAB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Alfa SAB stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1162 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.989 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 702.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Alfa SAB Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Alfa SAB as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Alfa SAB's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Alfa SAB's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Alfa SAB de.
Other Information on Investing in Alfa Stock
Alfa SAB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alfa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alfa with respect to the benefits of owning Alfa SAB security.