Matthews Emerging Markets ETF Volatility

EMSF ETF  USD 40.60  0.81  2.04%   
Matthews Emerging's realized and implied volatility are covered along with the standard risk metrics derived from them. The ETF shows moderate price volatility over the last 3 months.

Sharpe Ratio = 0.1687

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Matthews Emerging Markets's financial profile includes a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2%, a Risk of 2.19, and a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2%. The ETF is currently at approximately 13% of its recent trend range per monthly moving averages.
Key indicators related to Matthews Emerging's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
90 Days Economic Sensitivity

Key risk metrics for Matthews Emerging (3 Months):

 Beta
1.72
 Alpha
0.41
 Risk
2.19
 Sharpe Ratio
0.17
 Expected Return
0.37

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Sensitivity To Market

Matthews Emerging beta coefficient measures the volatility of Matthews ETF relative to the systematic risk of the broad market benchmark. A beta of 1.72 indicates the degree of sensitivity to market-wide movements. Current total volatility is approximately 2.19%. Matthews Emerging Markets has shown noticeable price swings over the selected period. Downside deviation is about 2.21% and standard deviation is about 2.19%, which summarize how widely returns have moved. ETF volatility includes tracking difference effects, fees, and trading friction on top of index movement. Premium/discount to NAV is often expressed as (Price − NAV) / NAV × 100 when NAV is available.
Current 90-day Matthews Emerging correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
α0.41   β1.72
3 Months Beta |Matthews Emerging Markets Demand Trend
Current 90-day Matthews Emerging correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

Downside Risk

Standard deviation measures how far Matthews returns deviate from the historical mean and remains a primary indicator of total price volatility. A large standard deviation signals wide price swings; a small one signals relative stability.
Standard Deviation
    
  2.19  
For Matthews Emerging, the distinction between upside and downside risk matters. Downside risk, the risk of loss specifically, is better measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Matthews Emerging's returns. Matthews Emerging Markets's financial profile includes a Downside Deviation of 2.21, a Downside Variance of 4.89, and a Maximum Drawdown of 8.98.

ETF Volatility Analysis

Volatility describes the degree to which Matthews Emerging ETF price fluctuates in either direction. It captures how much Matthews Emerging's price fluctuates, which is relevant to allocation calibration.
Transformation
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. The Average Price transformation calculates the mean of Matthews Emerging Markets's open, high, low, and close for each trading period. By incorporating all four price components equally, it provides a balanced representation of each period's trading activity. Compared to using the closing price alone, the average price reduces the influence of end-of-day positioning and can serve as a smoother input for other technical indicators.

Projected Return Density Against Market

Given a 90-day horizon, Matthews Emerging has a beta of 1.7154 suggesting when the benchmark rises, EMSF tends to outperform it on average. However, when benchmark returns turn negative, Matthews Emerging tends to underperform.
Matthews Emerging remains sensitive to broader ETF market conditions in addition to company or sector-specific developments. Portfolio diversification mitigates only part of this exposure. Matthews Emerging Markets's financial profile includes a Downside Deviation of 2.21, a Mean Deviation of 1.68, and a Semi Deviation of 1.80.
Matthews Emerging Markets has an alpha of 0.4147, implying that it can generate a 0.4147 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Distribution   
       Density  
Matthews Emerging's volatility is typically evaluated with standard deviation and beta. Standard deviation reflects how far Matthews Emerging's returns usually move from the mean over the selected horizon.

What Drives Matthews Emerging's Price Volatility?

Holdings and Allocation

Changes in underlying holdings, sector weights, and rebalancing activity within the Diversified Emerging Mkts category can influence Matthews Emerging's price dispersion even when broad indices are stable.

Political and Economic Environment

Rates, inflation expectations, and policy headlines can shift discount rates and risk appetite for Matthews Emerging.

Matthews Emerging's Fund-Specific Factors

Flows in and out of the fund, tracking error, and premium-to-NAV shifts are common drivers of short-term price movement in Matthews Emerging's shares.

ETF Risk Measures

Given a 90-day horizon, the coefficient of variation of Matthews Emerging is 592.74. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 4.81 and standard deviation of 2.19. The mean deviation of Matthews Emerging Markets is currently at 1.66. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.96
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.41
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.72
σ
Overall volatility
2.19
Ir
Information ratio 0.19

ETF Return Volatility

Matthews Emerging historical daily return volatility represents how much of Matthews Emerging ETF's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The Exchange Traded Fund reported 2.193% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial reported 0.9164% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

Related Correlations Analysis


Correlation Matchups

Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.

High positive correlations

AF
MSFTMETA
UBERMSFT
FMETA
JPMA
AMETA
  

High negative correlations

XOMMETA
XOMMSFT
XOMF
MRKMSFT
JPMT
XOMA

Matthews Emerging Competition Risk-Adjusted Indicators

Strong recent returns in Matthews ETF do not always mean Matthews Emerging ETF is outperforming peers on business quality. Peer-relative risk metrics add context on drawdown behavior, consistency, and return quality. These indicators are quantitative in nature and measure volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across different positions.

Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology

Return dispersion for Matthews Emerging quantifies how far daily or periodic returns deviate from the average across the measurement window. Dispersion compression can indicate low-information regimes where prices drift on thin conviction.

Reported values for Matthews Emerging Markets are derived from fund disclosures and market reference feeds and standardized for analysis. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board

Volatility Profile Summary

Recent data suggests that Matthews Emerging Markets is more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial by approximately 2.38x over the selected horizon. This differential reflects the relative dispersion of returns and frames how the asset responds to broader market conditions. Observed price behavior indicates modest directional movement within the current volatility regime. Across the current 90-day horizon, that places the security below 19% of the broader equity and portfolio universe on a pure volatility basis. This positioning reflects relative dispersion compared to peers rather than extreme instability.

Matthews Emerging Markets with characteristics aligned to broad market upside participation. This move summary looks at how the current session may translate into a basic near-term setup. It works best as a directional cue rather than as a standalone forecast. an unexpected upward trend with elevated sensitivity to market signals. Return distributions derived from historical modeling outline a range of potential outcomes over the selected 90-day horizon. View Matthews Emerging probability analysis.

Poor diversification
The correlation between Matthews Emerging and Dow Jones is 0.63, which Macroaxis classifies as Poor diversification for the selected horizon. This chart measures the degree of risk overlap between Matthews Emerging and Dow Jones.

Additional Risk Indicators

Secondary risk indicators for Matthews Emerging Markets evaluate exposure beyond standard deviation, beta, or one headline volatility measure. The practical goal is to identify how much risk is being accepted and whether that risk still fits the thesis.

Matthews Emerging Suggested Diversification Pairs

A pair-trading setup around Matthews Emerging shifts the return benchmark from the broad market to a second position, altering the risk profile. The key question is whether the second leg adds real hedge value instead of just creating a more complex version of the same risk.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Matthews Emerging as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Matthews Emerging's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Matthews Emerging's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Matthews Emerging Markets.

More Resources for Matthews ETF Analysis

Investors evaluate Matthews Emerging Markets using market price and NAV, each describing a different view of the fund. ETF assessment draws on expense ratio, liquidity, bid-ask spread, and how effectively the fund replicates its target exposure.
Separating Matthews Emerging's NAV from market price helps frame expectations more clearly. Category positioning, asset allocation methodology, and cost competitiveness contribute to the assessment.