iShares Gold Trust ETF Volatility
| IAU ETF | USD 88.75 0.41 0.46% |
Sharpe Ratio = -0.0305
| Leading Returns | Top Quartile | |||
| Strong | ||||
| Moderate | ||||
| Modest | ||||
| Cash | Low | Moderate | Elevated | High |
| Below Benchmark | IAU |
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.01%, a Risk of 2.53, and a Total Risk Alpha of -0.01. Based on monthly moving averages, the ETF is not performing at its full potential.
Key indicators related to IShares Gold's volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Key risk metrics for IShares Gold (3 Months):
Beta 0.69 | Alpha -0.01 | Risk 2.53 | Sharpe Ratio -0.03 | Expected Return -0.08 |
Moving together with IShares ETF
| 1.0 | GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | SLV | iShares Silver Trust | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | GLDM | SPDR Gold Mini | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | SGOL | abrdn Physical Gold | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | GLTR | abrdn Physical Precious | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | SIVR | abrdn Physical Silver | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | IAUM | iShares Gold Trust | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | BND | Vanguard Total Bond | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | PG | Procter Gamble | PairCorr |
Moving Against IShares ETF
Sensitivity To Market
IShares Gold beta coefficient measures the volatility of IShares ETF relative to the systematic risk of the broad market benchmark. A beta of 0.69 indicates the degree of sensitivity to market-wide movements. Current total volatility is approximately 2.53%. iShares Gold Trust has shown noticeable price swings over the selected period. Downside deviation is about 0.0% and standard deviation is about 2.52%, which summarize how widely returns have moved. Options markets imply a forward-looking volatility estimate near 46.0%. This indicates expectations for moderate future movement relative to historical averages. ETF variability increases when the underlying basket is less liquid, making spreads wider and NAV alignment slower. Premium/discount to NAV is often expressed as (Price − NAV) / NAV × 100 when NAV is available.
3 Months Beta |iShares Gold Trust Demand TrendCurrent 90-day IShares Gold correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Downside Risk
Standard deviation measures how far IShares returns deviate from the historical mean and remains a primary indicator of total price volatility. A large standard deviation signals wide price swings; a small one signals relative stability.
Standard Deviation | 2.53 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk and downside risk for IShares Gold. Total volatility includes favorable moves, while downside deviation isolates the loss risk in IShares Gold's daily returns. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded a Maximum Drawdown of 14.08.
IShares Put Option Risk Profile Based on 2026-02-27 Contracts
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded an Option Max Pain Price of 91.50. Put options written on IShares Gold grant holders the right to sell a specified amount of IShares ETF at a specified price. Put options on IShares ETF are often purchased as a form of portfolio insurance against IShares Gold's declines.
IShares Gold's PUT expiring on 2026-04-17
Profit |
| IShares Gold Price At Expiration |
Current IShares Gold Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
| Put | IAU260227P00070000 | -0.020882 | 0.004058 | 10 | 2026-02-27 | 0.0 - 0.55 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00079000 | -0.167172 | 0.016609 | 12 | 2026-02-27 | 0.0 - 1.45 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00080000 | -0.131088 | 0.018516 | 5 | 2026-02-27 | 0.05 - 1.35 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00081000 | -0.134237 | 0.020575 | 2 | 2026-02-27 | 0.7 - 1.3 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00081500 | -0.161907 | 0.021668 | 1 | 2026-02-27 | 0.3 - 1.75 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00082000 | -0.168721 | 0.022852 | 10 | 2026-02-27 | 0.45 - 1.65 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00082500 | -0.182848 | 0.023915 | 1 | 2026-02-27 | 0.6 - 1.95 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00083000 | -0.19419 | 0.025083 | 12 | 2026-02-27 | 0.85 - 2.35 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00083500 | -0.220438 | 0.025399 | 3 | 2026-02-27 | 0.9 - 2.25 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00084000 | -0.220154 | 0.027391 | 8 | 2026-02-27 | 1.15 - 2.55 | 0.0 | View |
| Put | IAU260227P00084500 | -0.230557 | 0.028836 | 2 | 2026-02-27 | 1.3 - 2.75 | 0.0 | View |
ETF Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which IShares Gold ETF price increases or decreases within a specified period. It is generally measured from either the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same ETF.
Transformation |
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. The Median Price transformation calculates the midpoint between iShares Gold Trust's high and low for each trading period. This provides a simple measure of the period's central tendency based on range extremes, ignoring the opening and closing levels. Compared to the typical or weighted close price, the median price gives equal weight to buyers and sellers at the extremes and is often used as a smoothed input for trend and momentum indicators.
Projected Return Density Against Market
Over a 90-day investment horizon, IShares Gold has a beta of 0.6883. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, IShares Gold's average returns tend to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding iShares Gold Trust tends to be smaller as well.IShares Gold is exposed to both systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk reflects broader ETF market movements, while company or sector-specific developments represent nonmarket drivers. Diversification may reduce specific risk, but market exposure remains. Beta and standard deviation help quantify volatility. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded a Mean Deviation of 1.83 and a Standard Deviation of 2.52.
Predicted Return Distribution |
| Density |
What Drives IShares Gold's Price Volatility?
Holdings and Allocation
Changes in underlying holdings, sector weights, and rebalancing activity within the Commodities Focused category can influence IShares Gold's price dispersion even when broad indices are stable.Political and Economic Environment
Rates, inflation expectations, and policy headlines can shift discount rates and risk appetite for IShares Gold.IShares Gold's Fund-Specific Factors
Flows in and out of the fund, tracking error, and premium-to-NAV shifts are common drivers of short-term price movement in IShares Gold's shares.ETF Risk Measures
Over a 90-day investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of IShares Gold is -3279.35. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 6.4 and standard deviation of 2.53. The mean deviation of iShares Gold Trust is currently at 1.82. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.94
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0134 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0052 |
ETF Return Volatility
IShares Gold historical daily return volatility represents how much of IShares Gold ETF's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The exchange-traded fund reported 2.5307% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial reported 0.9427% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
Related Correlations Analysis
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Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
| High negative correlations
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IShares Gold Competition Risk-Adjusted Indicators
Strong recent returns in IShares ETF do not always mean IShares Gold ETF is outperforming peers on business quality. Risk-adjusted metrics help compare IShares Gold's efficiency and downside exposure against peers on a like-for-like basis. These indicators are quantitative in nature and measure volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across different positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 1.90 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 2.34 | 5.66 | 18.36 | |||
| MSFT | 1.54 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 13.28 | |||
| UBER | 1.62 | -0.17 | 0.00 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 3.18 | 8.17 | |||
| F | 1.45 | -0.13 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 3.61 | 9.26 | |||
| T | 1.29 | 0.19 | 0.11 | -0.54 | 1.40 | 3.87 | 8.54 | |||
| A | 1.32 | -0.28 | 0.00 | -0.34 | 0.00 | 2.46 | 8.08 | |||
| CRM | 2.11 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -0.81 | 0.00 | 4.03 | 13.46 | |||
| JPM | 1.10 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1.50 | 2.18 | 8.16 | |||
| MRK | 1.22 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 1.54 | 2.81 | 7.67 | |||
| XOM | 1.38 | 0.18 | 0.09 | -0.27 | 1.90 | 2.68 | 9.09 |
Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology
Volatility regime analysis for IShares Gold identifies whether the fund is currently in a high, low, or transitioning dispersion state. Regime transitions often precede directional moves, making volatility shifts a useful timing signal.
iShares Gold Trust values are built from fund disclosures and market reference feeds, with reporting definitions aligned before display. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Michael Smolkin, Member of Macroaxis Board of Directors
IShares Gold Volatility Profile Summary
Recent data suggests that iShares Gold Trust is more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial by approximately 2.69x over the selected horizon. This differential reflects the relative dispersion of returns and frames how the asset responds to broader market conditions. Observed price behavior indicates modest directional movement within the current volatility regime. Across the current 90-day horizon, that places the security below 22% of the broader equity and portfolio universe on a pure volatility basis. This positioning reflects relative dispersion compared to peers rather than extreme instability.iShares Gold Trust with characteristics aligned to broad market upside participation. This directional read frames the latest price swing through a simple momentum and follow-through lens. It works best as a directional cue rather than as a standalone forecast. a normal upward fluctuation. Return distributions derived from historical modeling outline a range of potential outcomes over the selected 90-day horizon. View IShares Gold probability analysis.
Weak diversification
IShares Gold currently posts a 0.54 correlation with Dow Jones, indicating a Weak diversification relationship for the active sample. In portfolio terms, the overlap shows how much shared movement remains after combining both positions.
IShares Gold Additional Risk Indicators
Looking at additional risk metrics for iShares Gold Trust frames how the position may behave under different market and portfolio conditions. A thorough risk review clarifies whether current exposure warrants maintenance, reduction, or offset elsewhere in the portfolio.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0048 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.01 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | -61,878 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.33 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.01 |
IShares Gold Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading with IShares Gold hedges company-specific exposure by balancing a long view with an offsetting position. A disciplined pair structure still requires monitoring because correlation weakens when market regimes change.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against IShares Gold as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. IShares Gold's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, IShares Gold's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to iShares Gold Trust.