Macpac Films (Pakistan) Volatility
| MACFL Stock | 30.45 2.77 10.01% |
Macpac Films appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Macpac Films has Sharpe Ratio of 0.1, which conveys that the firm had a 0.1 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Macpac Films, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Macpac Films' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.091, downside deviation of 3.29, and Mean Deviation of 3.2 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Sharpe Ratio = 0.1021
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| Cash | Small Risk | Average Risk | High Risk | Huge Risk |
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Estimated Market Risk
| 4.46 actual daily | 40 60% of assets are more volatile |
Expected Return
| 0.46 actual daily | 9 91% of assets have higher returns |
Risk-Adjusted Return
| 0.1 actual daily | 8 92% of assets perform better |
Based on monthly moving average Macpac Films is performing at about 8% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Macpac Films by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to Macpac Films' volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Macpac Films Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Macpac daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Macpac's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Macpac Films volatility.
Macpac |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Macpac Films at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Macpac stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes. Main indicators related to Macpac Films' market risk premium analysis include:
Beta (0.45) | Alpha 0.46 | Risk 4.46 | Sharpe Ratio 0.1 | Expected Return 0.46 |
Moving together with Macpac Stock
| 0.77 | FFL | Fauji Foods | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | BOP | Bank of Punjab | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | ATLH | Atlas Honda | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | GATM | Gul Ahmed Textile | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | IPAK | Int Packaging Films | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | BAHL | Bank Al Habib | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | POL | Pakistan Oilfields | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | HTL | Hi Tech Lubricants | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | PTC | Pakistan Telecommunicatio | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | SCBPL | Standard Chartered Bank | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | PSO | Pakistan State Oil | PairCorr |
Moving against Macpac Stock
Macpac Films Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Macpac Films' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Macpac stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Macpac stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Macpac Films's beta of -0.45 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Macpac Films stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Macpac Films shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Macpac Films' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Macpac Films' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Macpac Films Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Macpac Films correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Macpac Films Volatility and Downside Risk
Macpac standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Macpac Films Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Macpac Films stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Macpac Films' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Macpac Films' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Macpac Films' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Macpac Films' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Macpac Films' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Macpac Films' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Macpac Films' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Macpac Films Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Macpac Films Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Macpac Films has a beta of -0.4456 . This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Macpac Films are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Macpac Films is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Macpac Films or Containers & Packaging sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Macpac Films' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Macpac stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Macpac Films Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract investor attention to the company. This positive attention may impact the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Macpac Films Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Macpac Films is 979.61. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 19.91 and standard deviation of 4.46. The mean deviation of Macpac Films is currently at 3.35. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.81
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Macpac Films Stock Return Volatility
Macpac Films historical daily return volatility represents how much of Macpac Films stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company accepts 4.4624% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7551% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
Related Correlations Analysis
| -0.32 | 0.46 | 0.25 | 0.24 | PINL | ||
| -0.32 | -0.52 | 0.3 | 0.24 | ABL | ||
| 0.46 | -0.52 | -0.09 | -0.09 | UNIC | ||
| 0.25 | 0.3 | -0.09 | 0.36 | TPLI | ||
| 0.24 | 0.24 | -0.09 | 0.36 | BIPL-CFEB | ||
Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
There is a big difference between Macpac Stock performing well and Macpac Films Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze Macpac Films' multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINL | 2.46 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 2.82 | 7.44 | 17.32 | |||
| ABL | 0.91 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 5.16 | 0.89 | 2.46 | 6.11 | |||
| UNIC | 0.81 | (0.05) | 0.00 | (11.50) | 0.00 | 1.47 | 9.08 | |||
| TPLI | 2.30 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 2.96 | 5.20 | 15.62 | |||
| BIPL-CFEB | 1.03 | (0.05) | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.00 | 3.20 | 9.48 |
About Macpac Films Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Macpac Films or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Macpac Films may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Macpac's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Macpac Films and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Macpac Films fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize Macpac Films' volatility to invest better
Higher Macpac Films' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Macpac Films stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Macpac Films stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Macpac Films investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Macpac Films' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Macpac Films' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Macpac Films Investment Opportunity
Macpac Films has a volatility of 4.46 and is 5.87 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 40 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Macpac Films. You can use Macpac Films to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Macpac Films to be traded at 38.06 in 90 days.Very weak diversification
The correlation between Macpac Films and DJI is 0.55 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Macpac Films and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Macpac Films Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Macpac Films' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macpac Films' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Macpac Films stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.091 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.96) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 973.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Macpac Films Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Macpac Films as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Macpac Films' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Macpac Films' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Macpac Films.
Other Information on Investing in Macpac Stock
Macpac Films financial ratios help investors to determine whether Macpac Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Macpac with respect to the benefits of owning Macpac Films security.