Novina SA (Poland) Volatility
| NOV Stock | 1.16 0.05 4.50% |
Currently, Novina SA is dangerous. Novina SA has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0493, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0493% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Novina SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Novina SA's Downside Deviation of 2.91, risk adjusted performance of 0.0635, and Mean Deviation of 2.3 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%.
Novina |
Novina SA Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Novina daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Novina's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Novina SA volatility.
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Novina SA can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Novina SA at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Novina stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Novina SA's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against Novina Stock
| 0.58 | PKN | Polski Koncern Naftowy | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | BNP | BNP Paribas Bank | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | SPL | Santander Bank Polska | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | PZU | Powszechny Zaklad | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | PEO | Bank Polska Kasa | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | MBK | mBank SA | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | ING | ING Bank lski | PairCorr |
Novina SA Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Novina SA's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Novina stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Novina stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Novina SA's beta of -1.44 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Novina SA stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Novina SA currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.03 and Jensen Alpha of 0.39. Novina SA is a potential penny stock. Although Novina SA may be in fact a good instrument to invest, many penny stocks are speculative in nature and are subject to artificial price hype. Please make sure you totally understand the upside potential and downside risk of investing in Novina SA. We encourage investors to look for signals such as email spams, message board hypes, claims of breakthroughs, volume upswings, sudden news releases, promotions that are not reported, or demotions released before SEC filings. Please also check biographies and work history of current and past company officers before investing in high volatility instruments, penny stocks, or equities with microcap classification. You can indeed make money on Novina instrument if you perfectly time your entry and exit. However, remember that penny stocks that have been the subject of artificial hype usually unable to maintain their increased share price for more than just a few days. The price of a promoted high volatility instrument will almost always revert back. The only way to increase shareholder value is through legitimate performance backed up by solid fundamentals.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Novina SA Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Novina SA correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Novina Beta |
Novina standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.85 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Novina SA's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Novina SA's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in novina stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Novina SA.
Novina SA Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Novina SA stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Novina SA's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Novina SA's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Novina SA's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Novina SA's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Novina SA's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Novina SA's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Novina SA's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Novina SA Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Novina SA Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Novina SA has a beta of -1.4361 . This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Novina SA are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Novina SA is expected to outperform its benchmark.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Novina SA or Novina sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Novina SA's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Novina stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Novina SA has an alpha of 0.3916, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Novina SA Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Novina SA Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of Novina SA is 2028.1. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 8.12 and standard deviation of 2.85. The mean deviation of Novina SA is currently at 2.07. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.77
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Novina SA Stock Return Volatility
Novina SA historical daily return volatility represents how much of Novina SA stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The enterprise accepts 2.8492% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7796% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Novina SA Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Novina SA or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Novina SA may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Novina's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Novina SA and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Novina SA fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize Novina SA's volatility to invest better
Higher Novina SA's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Novina SA stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Novina SA stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Novina SA investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Novina SA's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Novina SA's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Novina SA Investment Opportunity
Novina SA has a volatility of 2.85 and is 3.65 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Novina SA is lower than 25 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Novina SA to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Novina SA to be traded at 1.45 in 90 days.Very good diversification
The correlation between Novina SA and DJI is -0.35 (i.e., Very good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Novina SA and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Novina SA Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Novina SA's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Novina SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Novina SA stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0635 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.14) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.91 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1370.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Novina SA Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Novina SA as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Novina SA's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Novina SA's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Novina SA.
Additional Tools for Novina Stock Analysis
When running Novina SA's price analysis, check to measure Novina SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novina SA is operating at the current time. Most of Novina SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novina SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novina SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novina SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.