Payson Total Return Fund Volatility
| PBFDX Fund | USD 38.68 0.35 0.91% |
At this stage we consider Payson Mutual Fund to be very steady. Payson Total Return maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.1, which implies the entity had a 0.1 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Payson Total Return, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Payson Total's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0746, semi deviation of 0.9511, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1013.22 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Key indicators related to Payson Total's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Payson Total Mutual Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Payson daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Payson's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Payson Total volatility.
Payson |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game with Payson Total. They may decide to buy additional shares of Payson Total at lower prices to lower the average cost per share, thereby improving their portfolio's performance when markets normalize.
Moving together with Payson Mutual Fund
| 0.82 | VTSAX | Vanguard Total Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.95 | VFIAX | Vanguard 500 Index | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | VTSMX | Vanguard Total Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | VITSX | Vanguard Total Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.94 | VSMPX | Vanguard Total Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | VSTSX | Vanguard Total Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.95 | VFINX | Vanguard 500 Index | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | VFFSX | Vanguard 500 Index | PairCorr |
Payson Total Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Payson Total's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Payson mutual fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Payson mutual fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Payson Total's beta of 1.08 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Payson Total mutual fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Payson Total Return has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.33 and kurtosis of 0.89. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Payson Total's mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Payson Total's mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Payson Total Return Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Payson Total correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Payson Beta |
Payson standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.1 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Payson Total's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Payson Total's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in payson mutual fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Payson Total.
Payson Total Return Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Payson Total fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Payson Total's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Payson Total's mutual fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A mutual fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Payson Total's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Payson Total's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Payson Total's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the mutual fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Payson Total's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Payson Total's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Payson Total Return Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Payson Total Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.0811 indicating Payson Total Return market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Payson Total is expected to follow.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Payson Total or Payson Funds sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Payson Total's price will be affected by overall mutual fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Payson fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Payson Total Return has an alpha of 0.0157, implying that it can generate a 0.0157 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Payson Total Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Payson Total Mutual Fund Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of Payson Total is 996.37. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.2 and standard deviation of 1.1. The mean deviation of Payson Total Return is currently at 0.82. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.72
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Payson Total Mutual Fund Return Volatility
Payson Total historical daily return volatility represents how much of Payson Total fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund shows 1.0976% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7495% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Payson Total Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Payson Total or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Payson Total may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Payson's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Payson Total and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Payson Total fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.The fund invests primarily in common stock and convertible securities of large and mid capitalization domestic companies. Its investment adviser defines large capitalization domestic companies as those companies with market capitalizations in excess of 12 billion and mid capitalization domestic companies as those companies with market capitalizations in the range of 2 billion to 12 billion. The fund is non-diversified.
Payson Total's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Payson Mutual Fund over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Payson Total's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Payson Total's volatility to invest better
Higher Payson Total's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Payson Total Return fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Payson Total Return fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Payson Total Return investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Payson Total's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Payson Total's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Payson Total Investment Opportunity
Payson Total Return has a volatility of 1.1 and is 1.47 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 9 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Payson Total. You can use Payson Total Return to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The mutual fund experiences a moderate upward volatility. Check odds of Payson Total to be traded at $42.55 in 90 days.Poor diversification
The correlation between Payson Total Return and DJI is 0.74 (i.e., Poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Payson Total Return and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Payson Total Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Payson Total's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Payson Total's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Payson Total mutual fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0746 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0977 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.7883 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9511 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1013.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential mutual funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Payson Total Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Payson Total as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Payson Total's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Payson Total's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Payson Total Return.
Other Information on Investing in Payson Mutual Fund
Payson Total financial ratios help investors to determine whether Payson Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Payson with respect to the benefits of owning Payson Total security.
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