Vanguard Small Cap Value Fund Volatility

VSIAX Fund  USD 100.39  0.53  0.53%   
VANGUARD SMALL-CAP price risk is quantified relative to broad market benchmarks. The fund shows low price volatility over the last 3 months.

Sharpe Ratio = 0.0213

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Vanguard Small Cap Value (VSIAX) recorded a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.05%, a Risk of 0.99, and a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.05%. Based on monthly moving averages, the fund is operating near 1% of its historical performance range.
Key indicators related to VANGUARD SMALL-CAP's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
90 Days Economic Sensitivity

Key risk metrics for VANGUARD SMALL-CAP (3 Months):

 Beta
0.96
 Alpha
0.04
 Risk
0.99
 Sharpe Ratio
0.02
 Expected Return
0.02

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Sensitivity To Market

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP beta coefficient measures the volatility of VANGUARD mutual fund relative to the systematic risk of the broad market benchmark. A beta of 0.96 indicates the degree of sensitivity to market-wide movements. Current total volatility is approximately 0.99%. Vanguard Small Cap Value has shown noticeable price swings over the selected period. Downside deviation is about 1.02% and standard deviation is about 1.01%, which summarize how widely returns have moved. A fund’s downside behavior depends on what it holds and how correlated those holdings are in stressed markets. Funds with more equity exposure typically show higher volatility than more bond-heavy funds.
Current 90-day VANGUARD SMALL-CAP correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
α0.04   β0.96
3 Months Beta |Vanguard Small Cap Demand Trend
Current 90-day VANGUARD SMALL-CAP correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

Downside Risk

Standard deviation measures how far VANGUARD returns deviate from the historical mean and remains a primary indicator of total price volatility. A large standard deviation signals wide price swings; a small one signals relative stability.
Standard Deviation
    
  0.99  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk and downside risk for VANGUARD SMALL-CAP. Total volatility includes favorable moves, while downside deviation isolates the loss risk in VANGUARD SMALL-CAP's daily returns. Vanguard Small Cap Value (VSIAX) recorded a Downside Deviation of 1.02, a Downside Variance of 1.03, and a Maximum Drawdown of 4.39.

Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which VANGUARD SMALL-CAP fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. It is generally measured from either the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same mutual fund.
Transformation
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. The Median Price transformation calculates the midpoint between Vanguard Small Cap's high and low for each trading period. This provides a simple measure of the period's central tendency based on range extremes, ignoring the opening and closing levels. Compared to the typical or weighted close price, the median price gives equal weight to buyers and sellers at the extremes and is often used as a smoothed input for trend and momentum indicators.

Projected Return Density Against Market

Based on a 90-day horizon, VANGUARD SMALL-CAP has a beta of 0.9586. This entails Vanguard Small Cap Value market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, VANGUARD SMALL-CAP tends to follow.
VANGUARD SMALL-CAP is exposed to both systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk reflects broader mutual fund market movements, while company or sector-specific developments represent nonmarket drivers. Diversification may reduce specific risk, but market exposure remains. Beta and standard deviation help quantify volatility. Vanguard Small Cap Value (VSIAX) recorded a Downside Deviation of 1.02, a Mean Deviation of 0.77, and a Semi Deviation of 0.96.
Vanguard Small Cap Value has an alpha of 0.0399, implying that it can generate a 0.0399 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Distribution   
       Density  

Mutual Fund Risk Measures

Based on a 90-day horizon, the coefficient of variation of VANGUARD SMALL-CAP is 4697.74. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.97 and standard deviation of 0.99. The mean deviation of Vanguard Small Cap Value is currently at 0.75. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.96
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.96
σ
Overall volatility
0.99
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

Mutual Fund Return Volatility

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP historical daily return volatility represents how much of VANGUARD SMALL-CAP fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund reported 0.9865% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial reported 0.9236% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

Related Correlations Analysis


Correlation Matchups

Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.

High positive correlations

VEXAXVEMPX
VSMAXVEMPX
VSMAXVEXAX
VEMPXVSGAX
VEXAXVSGAX
VSMAXVTWIX
  

High negative correlations

IBITVCSAX
IBITVWIUX

Risk-Adjusted Indicators

Strong recent returns in VANGUARD Mutual Fund do not always mean VANGUARD SMALL-CAP Mutual Fund is outperforming peers on business quality. Risk-adjusted metrics help compare VANGUARD SMALL-CAP's efficiency and downside exposure against peers on a like-for-like basis. These indicators are quantitative in nature and measure volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across different positions.

Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology

Beta exposure for VANGUARD SMALL-CAP estimates how much of the fund's return variability is driven by market-wide forces versus allocation-specific effects. A beta above one indicates amplified sensitivity to market swings, increasing both upside and downside exposure.

Vanguard Small Cap Value values are built from fund disclosures and market reference feeds, with reporting definitions aligned before display. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Ellen Johnson, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board

Volatility Profile Summary

Recent data suggests that Vanguard Small Cap Value is more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial by approximately 1.08x over the selected horizon. This differential reflects the relative dispersion of returns and frames how the asset responds to broader market conditions. Observed price behavior indicates modest directional movement within the current volatility regime. Across the current 90-day horizon, that places the security below 8% of the broader equity and portfolio universe on a pure volatility basis. This positioning reflects relative dispersion compared to peers rather than extreme instability.

Vanguard Small Cap Value with characteristics aligned to broad market upside participation. This directional read frames the latest price swing through a simple momentum and follow-through lens. It works best as a directional cue rather than as a standalone forecast. a moderate upward price movement. Return distributions derived from historical modeling outline a range of potential outcomes over the selected 90-day horizon. View VANGUARD SMALL-CAP probability analysis.

Minimal diversification benefit
The correlation between VANGUARD SMALL-CAP and Dow Jones is 0.96, which Macroaxis classifies as Minimal diversification benefit for the selected horizon. This chart measures the degree of risk overlap between VANGUARD SMALL-CAP and Dow Jones.

Additional Risk Indicators

Secondary risk indicators for Vanguard Small Cap Value evaluate exposure beyond standard deviation, beta, or one headline volatility measure. These measures support both standalone risk assessment and portfolio-level analysis.

VANGUARD SMALL-CAP Suggested Diversification Pairs

A pair-trading setup around VANGUARD SMALL-CAP shifts the return benchmark from the broad market to a second position, altering the risk profile. A disciplined pair structure still requires monitoring because correlation weakens when market regimes change.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against VANGUARD SMALL-CAP as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. VANGUARD SMALL-CAP's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, VANGUARD SMALL-CAP's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Vanguard Small Cap Value.