Ningxia Younglight Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 000635 Stock | 8.32 0.22 2.58% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ningxia Younglight Chemicals on the next trading day is expected to be 8.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.99. Ningxia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ningxia Younglight stock prices and determine the direction of Ningxia Younglight Chemicals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ningxia Younglight's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ningxia |
Ningxia Younglight Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ningxia Younglight Chemicals on the next trading day is expected to be 8.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ningxia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ningxia Younglight's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ningxia Younglight Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ningxia Younglight Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ningxia Younglight's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ningxia Younglight's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.71 and 11.98, respectively. We have considered Ningxia Younglight's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ningxia Younglight stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ningxia Younglight stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2032 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0262 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.9912 |
Predictive Modules for Ningxia Younglight
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ningxia Younglight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ningxia Younglight
For every potential investor in Ningxia, whether a beginner or expert, Ningxia Younglight's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ningxia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ningxia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ningxia Younglight's price trends.Ningxia Younglight Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ningxia Younglight stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ningxia Younglight could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ningxia Younglight by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ningxia Younglight Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ningxia Younglight's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ningxia Younglight's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Ningxia Younglight Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ningxia Younglight stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ningxia Younglight shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ningxia Younglight stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ningxia Younglight Chemicals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ningxia Younglight Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ningxia Younglight's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ningxia Younglight's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ningxia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Variance | 12.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ningxia Stock
Ningxia Younglight financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ningxia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ningxia with respect to the benefits of owning Ningxia Younglight security.