Nanjing Yunhai Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

002182 Stock   13.31  0.08  0.60%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nanjing Yunhai Special on the next trading day is expected to be 13.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.90. Nanjing Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nanjing Yunhai stock prices and determine the direction of Nanjing Yunhai Special's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nanjing Yunhai's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Nanjing Yunhai's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 4.3 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 7.9 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Nanjing Yunhai works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Nanjing Yunhai Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nanjing Yunhai Special on the next trading day is expected to be 13.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nanjing Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nanjing Yunhai's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nanjing Yunhai Stock Forecast Pattern

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Nanjing Yunhai Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nanjing Yunhai's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nanjing Yunhai's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.74 and 17.04, respectively. We have considered Nanjing Yunhai's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.31
13.39
Expected Value
17.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nanjing Yunhai stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nanjing Yunhai stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.006
MADMean absolute deviation0.2817
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0261
SAESum of the absolute errors16.9
When Nanjing Yunhai Special prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Nanjing Yunhai Special trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Nanjing Yunhai observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Nanjing Yunhai

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nanjing Yunhai Special. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.6613.3116.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.7113.3617.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.6111.5913.57
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.320.360.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nanjing Yunhai. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nanjing Yunhai's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nanjing Yunhai's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nanjing Yunhai Special.

Other Forecasting Options for Nanjing Yunhai

For every potential investor in Nanjing, whether a beginner or expert, Nanjing Yunhai's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nanjing Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nanjing. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nanjing Yunhai's price trends.

Nanjing Yunhai Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nanjing Yunhai stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nanjing Yunhai could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nanjing Yunhai by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nanjing Yunhai Special Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nanjing Yunhai's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nanjing Yunhai's current price.

Nanjing Yunhai Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nanjing Yunhai stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nanjing Yunhai shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nanjing Yunhai stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nanjing Yunhai Special entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nanjing Yunhai Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nanjing Yunhai's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nanjing Yunhai's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nanjing stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Nanjing Stock

Nanjing Yunhai financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nanjing Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nanjing with respect to the benefits of owning Nanjing Yunhai security.