Dongwon Metal Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

018500 Stock   1,143  23.00  2.05%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dongwon Metal Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1,078 with a mean absolute deviation of 24.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,509. Dongwon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dongwon Metal stock prices and determine the direction of Dongwon Metal Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dongwon Metal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Dongwon Metal is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dongwon Metal Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dongwon Metal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dongwon Metal Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1,078 with a mean absolute deviation of 24.34, mean absolute percentage error of 887.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,509.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dongwon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dongwon Metal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dongwon Metal Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dongwon MetalDongwon Metal Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dongwon Metal Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dongwon Metal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dongwon Metal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,076 and 1,080, respectively. We have considered Dongwon Metal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,143
1,078
Expected Value
1,080
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dongwon Metal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dongwon Metal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria126.737
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation24.3431
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors1509.2707
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dongwon Metal Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dongwon Metal. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dongwon Metal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dongwon Metal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,1411,1431,145
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0271,0291,257
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,0811,1671,254
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Dongwon Metal

For every potential investor in Dongwon, whether a beginner or expert, Dongwon Metal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dongwon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dongwon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dongwon Metal's price trends.

Dongwon Metal Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dongwon Metal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dongwon Metal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dongwon Metal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dongwon Metal Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dongwon Metal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dongwon Metal's current price.

Dongwon Metal Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dongwon Metal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dongwon Metal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dongwon Metal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dongwon Metal Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dongwon Metal Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dongwon Metal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dongwon Metal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dongwon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Dongwon Metal

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dongwon Metal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dongwon Metal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Dongwon Stock

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Moving against Dongwon Stock

  0.66203650 Dream Security coPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dongwon Metal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dongwon Metal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dongwon Metal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dongwon Metal Co to buy it.
The correlation of Dongwon Metal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dongwon Metal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dongwon Metal moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dongwon Metal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Dongwon Stock

Dongwon Metal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dongwon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dongwon with respect to the benefits of owning Dongwon Metal security.