Aurora World Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| 039830 Stock | KRW 6,030 50.00 0.84% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aurora World on the next trading day is expected to be 5,762 with a mean absolute deviation of 182.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,668. Aurora Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aurora World stock prices and determine the direction of Aurora World's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aurora World's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Aurora |
Aurora World 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aurora World on the next trading day is expected to be 5,762 with a mean absolute deviation of 182.56, mean absolute percentage error of 50,758, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,668.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurora Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurora World's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurora World Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurora World | Aurora World Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aurora World Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurora World's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurora World's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5,761 and 5,764, respectively. We have considered Aurora World's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurora World stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurora World stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 94.0257 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -126.0119 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 182.5595 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0318 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7667.5 |
Predictive Modules for Aurora World
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora World. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aurora World
For every potential investor in Aurora, whether a beginner or expert, Aurora World's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurora Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurora. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurora World's price trends.Aurora World Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aurora World stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aurora World could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aurora World by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurora World Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aurora World's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aurora World's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurora World Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurora World stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurora World shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurora World stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurora World entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aurora World Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurora World's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurora World's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurora stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Aurora World
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aurora World position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aurora World will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Aurora Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aurora World could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aurora World when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aurora World - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aurora World to buy it.
The correlation of Aurora World is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aurora World moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aurora World moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aurora World can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Aurora Stock
Aurora World financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aurora Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aurora with respect to the benefits of owning Aurora World security.