INSUN Environmental Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

060150 Stock  KRW 5,450  10.00  0.18%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of INSUN Environmental New on the next trading day is expected to be 5,673 with a mean absolute deviation of 125.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,658. INSUN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast INSUN Environmental stock prices and determine the direction of INSUN Environmental New's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of INSUN Environmental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for INSUN Environmental is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of INSUN Environmental New value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

INSUN Environmental Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of INSUN Environmental New on the next trading day is expected to be 5,673 with a mean absolute deviation of 125.54, mean absolute percentage error of 29,941, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,658.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INSUN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INSUN Environmental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

INSUN Environmental Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest INSUN EnvironmentalINSUN Environmental Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

INSUN Environmental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting INSUN Environmental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. INSUN Environmental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5,670 and 5,675, respectively. We have considered INSUN Environmental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5,450
5,673
Expected Value
5,675
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INSUN Environmental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INSUN Environmental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.4175
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation125.5369
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0245
SAESum of the absolute errors7657.7499
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of INSUN Environmental New. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict INSUN Environmental. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for INSUN Environmental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as INSUN Environmental New. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5,4575,4605,463
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4,4564,4586,006
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as INSUN Environmental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against INSUN Environmental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, INSUN Environmental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in INSUN Environmental New.

Other Forecasting Options for INSUN Environmental

For every potential investor in INSUN, whether a beginner or expert, INSUN Environmental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. INSUN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in INSUN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying INSUN Environmental's price trends.

INSUN Environmental Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with INSUN Environmental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of INSUN Environmental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing INSUN Environmental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

INSUN Environmental New Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of INSUN Environmental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of INSUN Environmental's current price.

INSUN Environmental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how INSUN Environmental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading INSUN Environmental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying INSUN Environmental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify INSUN Environmental New entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

INSUN Environmental Risk Indicators

The analysis of INSUN Environmental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in INSUN Environmental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting insun stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with INSUN Environmental

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if INSUN Environmental position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in INSUN Environmental will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with INSUN Stock

  0.82005930 Samsung ElectronicsPairCorr
  0.75005935 Samsung ElectronicsPairCorr
  0.81005380 Hyundai MotorPairCorr

Moving against INSUN Stock

  0.7041510 SM EntertainmentPairCorr
  0.7035420 NaverPairCorr
  0.5078160 MEDIPOSTPairCorr
  0.37003920 Namyang DairyPairCorr
  0.32039240 Gyeongnam SteelPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to INSUN Environmental could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace INSUN Environmental when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back INSUN Environmental - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling INSUN Environmental New to buy it.
The correlation of INSUN Environmental is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as INSUN Environmental moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if INSUN Environmental New moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for INSUN Environmental can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in INSUN Stock

INSUN Environmental financial ratios help investors to determine whether INSUN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in INSUN with respect to the benefits of owning INSUN Environmental security.